Auto Accidents Rise 14% During Full Moon, U.K. Insurer Says: Bloomberg.com

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the claim that car accidents increase by 14% during a full moon compared to a new moon, as reported by a study from the U.K.'s Churchill Insurance Group. Participants explore potential explanations for this phenomenon, including psychological and social factors, while also referencing various studies related to lunar effects on human behavior.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the data regarding increased accidents during a full moon appears legitimate but question the interpretation of the results.
  • One participant suggests that increased visibility of the full moon may distract drivers, leading to accidents.
  • Another participant mentions anecdotal evidence from medical and law enforcement professionals who claim unusual behavior during full moons, although they acknowledge a lack of supporting studies.
  • A participant references a study indicating that a higher number of full moons coincided with weekends, which could explain increased accident rates due to weekend partying.
  • Concerns are raised about the reliability of studies claiming lunar effects, with references to dubious statistical methods in past research.
  • Some participants discuss the potential influence of the moon on human behavior, including the idea that tidal forces might affect mental processes, while others express skepticism about these claims.
  • There is a mention of a meta-analysis that found minimal correlation between lunar phases and various human behaviors, suggesting that the moon's influence is negligible.
  • Participants also explore the idea that women's menstrual cycles may align with lunar cycles, raising questions about possible mental variations associated with this phenomenon.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of skepticism and curiosity regarding the lunar effect on behavior. While some agree on the lack of solid evidence supporting the claims, others propose alternative explanations and hypotheses, indicating that the discussion remains unresolved with multiple competing views.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the reliance on anecdotal evidence, potential biases in the studies referenced, and the influence of confounding variables such as weekends on accident rates. The discussion also highlights the complexity of establishing a causal relationship between lunar phases and human behavior.

Ivan Seeking
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"Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Car accidents occur 14 percent more often on average during a full moon than a new moon, according to a study of 3 million car policies by the U.K.'s Churchill Insurance Group Plc."

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aFPQNod4LRn4&refer=uk

The data appears to be legit. I am not posting this for the interpretation offered.
 
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Shall I suggest a more mundane cause?

When the moon is full, people look at it.
 
Originally posted by russ_watters
Shall I suggest a more mundane cause?

When the moon is full, people look at it.

This is what I was thinking!

I must say though that nearly any medical worker or law enforcement person will tell you that they get the weirdo's during full moons. To my knowledge, no study has ever been able to support this claim.
 
Lunacy

I read about a study on this once. This is all second hand so take it as you will.

Anyways the study showed that there seemed to be an increase in auto accidents during full moons. It turned out however on later examination that while the study was under way there was an unsually high number of full moons that happened to fall on weekends. Of course it doesn't take very much to figure out that of course auto accidents are higher on weekends than weekdays. What with the partying and the staying up late and all.
 
Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
This is what I was thinking!

I must say though that nearly any medical worker or law enforcement person will tell you that they get the weirdo's during full moons. To my knowledge, no study has ever been able to support this claim.

A summary of studies on this...
http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a2_337.html

The last paragraph says it all!
"So how do we explain all those cops and emergency room nurses who believe in the lunar effect? Easy. Nobody notices when there's a full moon and nothing happens--you only notice when something does happen. In other words, heads I win, tails don't count. Case closed."
 
Originally posted by russ_watters
Shall I suggest a more mundane cause?

When the moon is full, people look at it.

I remember driving home recently and a full moon was rising up over the horizon (looking big and orange). It was situated such that it appeared to be lined up with the road. I saw a couple people swerve when they first saw it. Look out! It's only a quarter million miles away! :smile: It was very cool looking...I probably swerved too.
 
Originally posted by Phobos
A summary of studies on this...
http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a2_337.html

The last paragraph says it all!
"So how do we explain all those cops and emergency room nurses who believe in the lunar effect? Easy. Nobody notices when there's a full moon and nothing happens--you only notice when something does happen. In other words, heads I win, tails don't count. Case closed."

Even though I personally agree with the conclusion...I think statements like this bother me when they come from a website with such a biased name as straightdope - suspect in its own right. This implies that the author's opinion is the only opinon.

That's pretty much been the story with all lunar-effect claims--when you look at them closely, they fall apart. Another study of homicides in Dade County, Florida (Lieber and Sherin, 1972) claimed to have found there was an upsurge in killings in the 24 hours before and after the full moon. Other researchers, however, found that the Dade County researchers had used dubious statistical methods. When the figures were reevaluated using proper methods, the alleged pattern disappeared.

Maybe, or this may be one scientist's opinion against another’s.

Besides, when it comes to exerting any influence on humankind, the moon has a lot of competition. Researchers have calculated that a mother holding her baby exerts 12 million times the tide-raising force on the child that the moon does, simply by virtue of being closer

However the moon exerts a great amount of force on the planet. One might cite a popular explanation for UFOs : seismic waves causing mental aberrations or unusual behavior. Could tidal forces and Earth [land] tides create the same seismic conditions that can cause these unusual mental processes?

Just to make sure about all this, a pair of admittedly skeptical scientists (Rotton and Kelly, 1985) did what they called a "meta-analysis" of 37 studies of the moon's effect on things like psychiatric admissions, suicides, crime, etc. They found that the moon accounted for no more than 3/100 of 1 percent of the monthly variation.

What is the basis for the statistics? My wife [almost 30 years in medicine] says that all of the weirdo’s come out during full moons. How does one gauge a statement like this? She never claimed that they were all admitted to a mental institution. I have seen nothing that addresses many claims made.

Also, what are the differences between moonlight and sunlight? How does exposure to filtered light affect the brain? SAD?

Also, if women’s periods can run along lunar cycles, perhaps mental variations can also take place as a function of this cycle.

Just some other options to consider…since we were ruling out all possibilities. :wink:
 
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Is there really a person with the
last name "Rotten"?
 
Originally posted by zoobyshoe
Is there really a person with the
last name "Rotten"?

Rotton
 
  • #10
Also, if women’s periods can run along lunar cycles, perhaps mental variations can also take place as a function of this cycle.

On second thought, after nearly twenty years of marriage, I can say that this statement is a foregone conclusion.
 
  • #11
Ah. Yes, I see. My mistake. It's
a relief. Because if his name were
Rotten people would be making fun
of it all the time. But since it's
actually Rotton, I'm certain he's
never had that problem.

-Zooby
 
  • #12
Originally posted by zoobyshoe
Ah. Yes, I see. My mistake. It's
a relief. Because if his name were
Rotten people would be making fun
of it all the time. But since it's
actually Rotton, I'm certain he's
never had that problem.

-Zooby



I am quite sure it's Germanic; though I can't remember the root word..."red" I think?

I knew a guy from China whose parents admired President Harry Truman. When they immigrated to the US, the Dongs proudly name their son Harry.

No kidding!
 
  • #13
Hmmmmm...German/English diction-
ary says Rot means Red, and Ton
means Clay. Mr. Rotton is Mr.
Redclay. Not as smelly as I thought, merely earthy.

Harry Dong. I'm just thinking how
Beavis and Butthead would react
if he had occasion to come in as a substitute teacher or something.
 
  • #14
Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
Even though I personally agree with the conclusion...I think statements like this bother me when they come from a website with such a biased name as straightdope - suspect in its own right. This implies that the author's opinion is the only opinon.

Granted. But if you know that site, it's kind of tongue-in-cheek (playful bragging that they have all the answers). The website is an offshoot of a nationally syndicated article which gives detailed/accurate (and sassy) answers to a wide variety of questions.

Maybe, or this may be one scientist's opinion against another’s.

Perhaps. It at least invites the reader to explore the evidence further and decide for him/herself.

However the moon exerts a great amount of force on the planet. One might cite a popular explanation for UFOs : seismic waves causing mental aberrations or unusual behavior. Could tidal forces and Earth [land] tides create the same seismic conditions that can cause these unusual mental processes?

A hypothesis for which one would need some direct evidence (e.g., measuring brain activity during different lunar phases).

What is the basis for the statistics? My wife [almost 30 years in medicine] says that all of the weirdo’s come out during full moons. How does one gauge a statement like this? She never claimed that they were all admitted to a mental institution. I have seen nothing that addresses many claims made.

We would need to check the research paper.


Also, if women’s periods can run along lunar cycles, perhaps mental variations can also take place as a function of this cycle.

Since you mentioned it!
http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a990924.html
 
  • #15
Originally posted by Phobos
Since you mentioned it!
http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a990924.html

Interesting link!

Also, regarding the original point, I think we really agree. The evidence is good [no connection with the moon] but not conclusive.

I do weigh in with personal testimony as logical evidence [so to speak] with the understanding that it might in fact all be explained away. Personally, I just need a little more convincing.
 
  • #16
Show of hands...who feels crazier during a full moon? :wink:
 
  • #17
Count me out. The fact I'm covered
with fur and bloodthirsty during
full moons is meaningless. That's
the way I always am.