DavidMcC said:
...Ashtekar predicted the "big bounce" on the basis of a time-reversed model. This has a big flaw, and obviously misses out the rest of the initial universe - what was actually the collapse of one massive body within the earlier universe spuriously becomes the entire universe.
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I don't understand your objection.
As I recall the original result (Bojowald 2001) was not based on "time-reversal" but on numerical calculation---computer runs using a quantization of the standard Friedmann model that's basic in cosmology. It just turned out that there was a bounce, of the whole universe, not involving just "one massive body."
Is it possible that you are confusing what Ashtekar has been working on mostly since 2006, bounce cosmology, with what Smolin proposed back in 1992-1993? Smolin's CNS scenario, which he later put into a popular book circa 2000 (I think it was called Lives of the Cosmos) and which does indeed involve the collapse of a massive body, to a black hole. Loop cosmology typically does not.
Bounce cosmology as worked on by Ashtekar's group at Penn State and many others is entirely different. It has no mathematical connection with Smolin's scenario of black hole --> big bang.
Ashtekar's group revised Bojowald's 2001 model in 2006. Major improvement, almost like a complete makeover. Model has been studied in many different variations---with/without inflation, spatial finite/infinite, various types of matter, simulated numerically in computer and also formulated in solvable equations.
The bounce turns out to be rather robust. They try all these different variations (curved/flat, finite infinite, etc ) and they always get a bounce.
So it is something that can be either right or wrong, and has to be tested, which seems inherently rooted in the way they quantize the classical cosmo model. No matter what they do they do not get a singularity. When they work back into the past they get, instead, a bounce and a contracting prior classical universe.
They don't get a black hole --> big bang as in Smolin CNS. They get a whole classical U that collapses, very much like the "big crunch" we used to hear about, but at the last minute due to quantum corrections to gravity, gravity becomes repellent and it it bounces. Incidentally causing a brief "super-inflation" episode, that sets the stage for a regular inflation if the right matter field is present.
If traces of this bounce are not found in the ancient CMB light it will be a serious blow to Ashtekar's program. Essentially it would shoot down the Loop approach to cosmology, because the bounce result has been so thoroughly studied in that model for so long. At least since 2006, and with the earlier Bojowald version going back to 2001.
So what is the "flaw"?