Binomial Probability: More Than 1 Survival from 10 Chicks

[Procrastinate]

Homework Statement

For a certain species of bird, there is a chance of three in five that a fledgling will survive. From a brood of ten chicks, find the chance that more than one will survive.

Let p = survival chance = 3/5
Let q = non-survival chance = 2/5

P(less than one will not survive) = P(more than one will survive) = 0.006047 + 0.040311

This answer is wrong, however, as my textbook is answer says it is about 0.9989 or something similar to that. I know how to get that answer through using powers (1-0.4^10) but I don't understand how I didn't get the same answer from the table because I have used that method a lot with many other questions and I does work. Perhaps someone could explain what I have done wrong with me?

 

[lkh1986]

P(more than one will not survive) = 1 - P(none will survive) - P(only one will survive)

 

[Procrastinate]

P(more than one will not survive) = 1 - P(none will survive) - P(only one will survive)

I thought it was P(more than one will survive)?

 

[lkh1986]

I thought it was P(more than one will survive)?

Oops, my bad. If that's the case then the formula should be:
P(more than one will survive) = 1 - P(none will survive) - P(only one will survive) = 0.9983.

 

[Procrastinate]

Oops, my bad. If that's the case then the formula should be:
P(more than one will survive) = 1 - P(none will survive) - P(only one will survive) = 0.9983.

Thanks.

However, would it still work for P(less than one will not survive)?

 

[lkh1986]

Thanks.

However, would it still work for P(less than one will not survive)?

I think you should use P(less than two will not survive)?

P(more than one will survive) = 1 - P(none will survive) - P(only one will survive) = 0.9983.
Use p = 0.6 and q = 0.4

OR
P(less than two will not survive) = P(none not survive) + P(one will not survive) = 0.9983
Use p = 0.4 and = 0.6

 

[Procrastinate]

I think you should use P(less than two will not survive)?

P(more than one will survive) = 1 - P(none will survive) - P(only one will survive) = 0.9983.
Use p = 0.6 and q = 0.4

OR
P(less than two will not survive) = P(none not survive) + P(one will not survive) = 0.9983
Use p = 0.4 and = 0.6

Oh, thank you, I realize what I did wrong with my method. I did not include one will not survive in the second option.