Calculating Probability in Casino Games: A Case Study in Roulette Betting

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating the expected value of a $5 bet on the number 7 in roulette at the Venetian casino in Las Vegas. The probability of losing the bet is 37/38, while the probability of winning is 1/38, resulting in a potential net gain of $175. The initial calculations presented were incorrect; the correct expected value should be calculated as -$4.87 (loss) plus $4.61 (gain), leading to a total expected value of -$0.26. This highlights the importance of accurate probability calculations in casino betting scenarios.

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rowdy3
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When you give the Venetian casino in Las Vegas $5 for a bet on the number 7 in roulette, you have a 37/38 probability of losing $5 and you have a 1/38 probability of making a net gain of $175.
There's a example close to this problem in my book and followed the steps. I made a table and did the following:
I did $-5 x 37/38(.974) = -4.87
I did $5 x 1/38(.026) = + 0.13
= -4.74. The answer is -. 26 cents. What did I do wrong?
 
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Your second expected value should be 175*(1/38), which comes out to about $4.61.
-$4.87 + $4.61 = -$.26,

Note that the answer is probably NOT -.26 cents, which would be a fraction of a penny.
 
Thanks.
 

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