Strategy for beating roulette using simple probability

[cardicorona]

I think that I have figured out a way to beat the game of roulette with simple probability and a very useful equality...

The bet is either red, black, odd, even, low, or high.

Each of these bets have a probability of 18/38 and the payout is double the bet.

The strategy is to increase the bet such that the payout is more than the additive losses and then after each win cycle back to the first bet.

For instance: first bet is a dollar, second bet is 2 dollars, third bet is 4 dollars, fourth bet is 8 dollars. In mathematical terms, we have

[tex]\sum_{0}^{n}2^{n}=2^{n+1}-1[\tex]

This way, with each winning, bet the gain is more than the loss.

Now, say you lose 4 times in a row betting red, the fifth bet will be 32 dollars probability that you will win the fifth time is already

1-(18/38)^5-2/38=.923

In which the 2/38 represents the 0 and double 0 squares.

Once you win then you start back with bidding a dollar.

Granted this particular choice in cycle would take a long amount of time to earn money since the net gain is only a dollar. But there are obviously an infinite amount of other choices in which the net is larger.

The fall back is that long losing streaks would amount to ridiculously large sums of money with 2^20 being just over a million dollars.

Thoughts?

 

[obafgkmrns]

The strategy you describe is called a "martingale." You'll eventually go broke unless you start with an infinite amount of cash, in which case you probably wouldn't be bothering with roulette to begin with.

 

[skeptic2]

The amount of cash you start with determines how many consecutive losses you can sustain without going broke. Once you know how many consecutive losses you can survive, you can calculate the odds of that happening. I think you will find that you will win remarkably little money compared to the amount you start with before you go broke.

 

[mrspeedybob]

There is one ridiculously simple way to win at roulette, be the house. 0 and 00 give you a real mathematical advantage. As far as I am aware that is the only way.

 

[blue_raver22]

I would approach this strategy with caution and skepticism. While it may seem like a simple and effective way to beat the game of roulette, there are several flaws in this approach.

Firstly, the concept of increasing bets after each loss (known as the Martingale system) has been proven to be flawed and does not guarantee a win in the long run. In fact, it can lead to significant losses if a long losing streak occurs.

Secondly, the idea of "resetting" after a win and starting with a small bet again assumes that there is a finite number of bets that can be made. In reality, there is no limit to the number of bets that can be placed, and a long enough losing streak could still result in a significant loss.

Additionally, this strategy relies on the assumption that there is an equal probability for each outcome (red, black, odd, even, low, high). In reality, roulette wheels are designed to have a slight bias towards certain numbers or colors, making it difficult to accurately predict the outcome.

Overall, while this strategy may seem appealing and logical, it is not a reliable or scientifically proven method for beating roulette. The game is based on chance and luck, and there is no guaranteed way to consistently win. It is important to approach strategies like this with caution and to remember that there is always a risk involved in gambling.