Calculating the End of the Universe Using Standard Deviation Statistics

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of vacuum decay as a potential end to the Universe, exploring its statistical likelihood and implications within the context of an infinite Universe. Participants engage in theoretical reasoning and philosophical considerations regarding the nature of vacuum decay and its observability.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • One participant describes vacuum decay as a transition of the Higgs boson from a false vacuum to a true vacuum state, leading to destructive bubble nucleation.
  • Another participant questions the meaningfulness of assigning a numerical likelihood to vacuum decay occurring within the Universe's age of 13.8 billion years.
  • Some participants argue that in an infinite Universe, vacuum decay must have occurred an infinite number of times, raising questions about the implications of such a statement.
  • One participant suggests that while vacuum decay may happen infinitely, the vast distances between bubble nucleations make it unlikely for Earth to be affected.
  • Concerns are raised about the scientific validity of discussing phenomena that are unknown and unobservable, questioning whether such inquiries fall within the realm of science.
  • Philosophical reflections are shared regarding the nature of thought experiments and their place in scientific discourse.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the significance of vacuum decay's statistical likelihood and its implications in an infinite Universe. There is no consensus on the meaningfulness of discussing unobservable phenomena or the validity of the claims made regarding vacuum decay.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the speculative nature of the discussion, reliance on the assumption of an infinite Universe, and the unresolved status of vacuum decay as a phenomenon that may not be observable.

TomVassos
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TL;DR
One possible end to the Universe is called vacuum decay, where a Higgs boson could transition from a false vacuum to a true vacuum state. This would create a vacuum decay bubble that would expand at light speed, destroying everything in its path. With a 95% probably, we know when this is likely to occur. But what is the likelihood that it has happened already?
One possible end to the Universe is called vacuum decay, where a Higgs boson could transition from a false vacuum to a true vacuum state. This would create a vacuum decay bubble (known as bubble nucleation) that would expand at light speed, destroying everything in its path.

According to Anders Andreassen et al. at Harvard University, they calculated with a 95% confidence level that vacuum decay will likely not happen until the Universe is between 1058 and 10549 years old: https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.97.056006

But what is the statistical likelihood that vacuum decay has already occurred somewhere in the Universe after only 13.8 billion years, (about 1010 years)?

Can anyone on this forum answer this question?

Although the answer to this question is almost certainly going to be very close to zero (maybe 10-150 percent?), it raises some very interesting possibilities, especially if the Universe is infinite in size.

I would be eternally grateful if anyone on this forum could answer my question:
What is the statistical likelihood that vacuum decay has already occurred?

Thanks in advance for your help!

Tom Vassos
 
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Moderator's note: Thread moved to cosmology forum.
 
TomVassos said:
But what is the statistical likelihood that vacuum decay has already occurred somewhere in the Universe after only 13.8 billion years, (about 1010 years)?
Not an answer to your question, but it's not clear to me how meaningful any numerical answer would be.
 
Yes, because regardless of how small this number is, in an infinite universe, vacuum decay has already happened an infinite number of times!!!
 
TomVassos said:
Yes, because regardless of how small this number is, in an infinite universe, vacuum decay has already happened an infinite number of times!!!
Which, one could argue, is itself a physically meaningless statement!
 
Well, I like to think that it is a statement about how huge the universe might be. Think about it. In an infinite universe, vacuum decay has already occurred an infinite number of times, each bubble nucleation destroying the Universe at light-speed.

But there is almost zero chance of Earth getting destroyed because each of these bubble nucleations is so far apart from another one. And with the expansion of the Universe, it is impossible for all these bubbles to ever meet up with each other to destroy the entire Universe. What a cool paradox. I would love to have a broader conversation about this on PhysicsForums but for some reason, the moderators have shut me down from having any discussion about an unproven paradox. Oh well.

Fascinating thought though!! :) :)
 
TomVassos said:
I would love to have a broader conversation about this on PhysicsForums but for some reason, the moderators have shut me down from having any discussion about an unproven paradox.
I can see the reason(s) from your warning history. Check your PMs... :wink:
 
PeroK said:
Not an answer to your question, but it's not clear to me how meaningful any numerical answer would be.
Deciding whether to max out one's credit cards?

I also don't see the point asking about what is, practically by definition, unknown and unobservable. It's certainly not subject to scientific inquiry.
 
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Yes hat's true, we will never be able to observe it coming. But, if science is ever able to prove that the Universe is infinite in size, then it would be cool to know that all of these vacuum bubble nucleations are happening all over the Universe... :)

Tom
 
  • #10
If one cannot investigate this using observations, how is it science?
 
  • #11
TomVassos said:
Fascinating thought though!! :) :)
One person's fascinating thought is another's vacuous philosophy!
 
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  • #12
Lol, that's true... but just remember all of those thought experiments that Einstein did... lol.
 
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  • #13
Do you really want to place yourself in the role of the next Einstein?
 
  • #14
IBTL. :wink:
 
  • Haha
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