Calculating the expected value of a dice roll

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the expected value of a dice roll in a board game context, where rolling a 1 results in moving 6 steps instead of 1. Participants are examining the probabilities assigned to different outcomes and how they affect the expected value calculation.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Assumption checking, Mathematical reasoning

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants are questioning the probability distribution assigned to the outcomes of the dice roll, particularly regarding the treatment of the number 1 and its impact on the expected value. There is also a discussion about the correct calculation of expected value based on the defined probabilities.

Discussion Status

Some participants express confusion about the expected value calculation and the correctness of the book's answer. There is an ongoing exploration of the assumptions made regarding the probabilities and outcomes, with participants providing feedback on each other's reasoning.

Contextual Notes

Participants are working within the constraints of a homework assignment, which may limit the information available for discussion. The specific rules of the board game and how they influence the expected value are under scrutiny.

Addez123
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Homework Statement
In a boardgame you move forward the amount of steps that the dice roll. Except if the dice show 1 you move 6 steps. Calculate the Expected Value.
Relevant Equations
E(x) = sum(g(k) * p(k))
I write p(k) as:
$$p(k) = 1/6, k = 2,3,4,5$$
$$p(k) = 2/6, k = 6$$

Is that wrong?
Because then the expected value becomes
$$1/6 * 4 + 2/6 * 6 = 8/3$$

While my book says 11/3
 
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Addez123 said:
Homework Statement:: In a boardgame you move forward the amount of steps that the dice roll. Except if the dice show 1 you move 6 steps. Calculate the Expected Value.
Relevant Equations:: E(x) = sum(g(k) * p(k))

I write p(k) as:
$$p(k) = 1/6, k = 2,3,4,5$$
$$p(k) = 2/6, k = 6$$

Is that wrong?
Because then the expected value becomes
$$1/6 * 4 + 2/6 * 6 = 8/3$$

While my book says 11/3
Well, ##8/3 < 3##, which is less than you'd expect if ##1## counted as ##1## and not ##6##.

Your problem seems to be that you didn't count throws of ##2,3## or ##5##.
 
PS The book's answer looks wrong. Assuming I've understood the rules.
 
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I don't get the book answer.

Edit: Beaten by @PeroK
 
Addez123 said:
$$p(k) = 1/6, k = 2,3,4,5$$
$$p(k) = 2/6, k = 6$$
Is that wrong?
Because then the expected value becomes
$$1/6 * 4 + 2/6 * 6 = 8/3$$
No, it doesn’t become that.
In your last step, you multiplied the 1/6 by the number of cases with that probability, not by the number of steps taken in those cases.
 
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Ah yea that was why!
Should've calculated 1/6*2 + 1/6 * 3 etc.
 

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