Calculating theoretical probability

[bhuv]

Hello All,

I have the following question in one of my tutorials. I need some help in resolving this.

Background: A manufacturing company developed 40000 new drugs and they need to be tested.
Question
The QA checks on the previous batches of drugs found that — it is 4 times more likely that a drug is able to produce a better result than not.
If we take a sample of ten drugs, we need to find the theoretical probability that at most three drugs are not able to do a satisfactory job.

a.) Propose the type of probability distribution that would accurately portray the above scenario, and list out the three conditions that this distribution follows.
b.) Calculate the required probability.Thanks,
Vicky

 

[chwala]

Hello All,

I have the following question in one of my tutorials. I need some help in resolving this.

Background: A manufacturing company developed 40000 new drugs and they need to be tested.
Question
The QA checks on the previous batches of drugs found that — it is 4 times more likely that a drug is able to produce a better result than not.
If we take a sample of ten drugs, we need to find the theoretical probability that at most three drugs are not able to do a satisfactory job.

a.) Propose the type of probability distribution that would accurately portray the above scenario, and list out the three conditions that this distribution follows.
b.) Calculate the required probability.Thanks,
Vicky

Which distributions do you know in probability? are we looking at discrete or continuous data?

 

[Office_Shredder]

This thread is four years old, I doubt the op is still working on it.

In case anyone else stumbles on this and is looking for guidance for a similar problem: if a drug is p to succeed and 1-p to fail, they tell us in the problem that p=4(1-p). You can solve for p from here. The question probably wants you to assume that the drugs each succeed or fail independently in your sample of ten.

 

[chwala]

...Binomial distribution would address this.