H2Bro
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Jim Kata;4115408The responses to this thread seem to fall into one of two categories. One is that Capitalism is the best system there is and the end is inevitable so just hang on for the horrifying decline. The other response wants to get into the semantics of the meaning of growth said:I apologize if my post was drifting off topic, it seemed in-line with previous posts, however. I would like to make the point that, in a topic asking 'if capitalism can continue, is it sustainable, can we sustain indefinite growth...etc' A very logical starting point is defining precisely what you mean by capitalism, growth, and sustainability.
This isn't like talking about the Boltzmann constant or another completely unambiguous concept, people encounter the terms capitalism and sustainability in their every day lives quite frequently and generally develop different ideas or connotations about them than how they are used in academic settings. More importantly, these terms develop different meanings in the minds of everday folks according to their profession, disposition, and especially politics, so there is no singular 'layman usage'. So, when I offer a precise definition of capitalism, its not because I think that's what we should talk about, rather, that is a necessary precursor to having a mutually intelligible discussion without talking about different things or past each other. Its not just semantics (nor linguistics, unless you want to argue about pronounciation).
The question 'is capitalism sustainable' has a few interpretations, I'll do my best to hack out an answer for each I can think up.
'Can our current economic mode of organization continue indefinitely into the future?'
No, absolutely not. One basic way of looking at this is that the mantle does not convect enough hard metals up into accessible continental crusts to replace our current rate of consumption. Recycling has hard limits because processes like casting and alloying are often non-reversible. We can try 'asteroid mining', but not indefinitely, because this requires insane amounts of energy in the form of fossil fuels. These fuels are currently being diverted towards families 2nd and 3rd cars, because this resource is allocated by market mechanisms (i.e. whoever can pay for it) and not socialist mechanisms (i.e. where such resources will give the greatest societal value [see the important of definitions now -snark-])In straight material terms, and for straight material reasons, I think the answer is no.
'Can a market-oriented society that utilizes banks for lending and raising capital continue indefinitely into the future?'
Sure, I don't see any reason why not. You see, I think the market mechanisms are terribly efficient, and a big explanatory factor in the eastern-blocs dissolution was their coordination problems. So long as this kind of market organization is used for coordinating production and consumption of services and goods that are renewable / replenishable or at least not dwindling at terrifying rates, I think its a very good plan for society. Perhaps at some point in the future we will have enough 'big data' streams that can aggregate individual wants geographically and temporally and coordinate these with distributors and producers to coordinate the economy even better than markets. But until then, prices are likely our most effective signal mechanism.
Banks are also a very important social institution. Without such a thing as debt it would be nearly impossible to start big projects or take risks on the payoffs of future inventions, i.e. how can I start up a research lab that hasnt produced any value yet without a loan? Banks are dangerous when they mix functions, like speculations and savings, but before 1980 this wasn't a problem in the US (and still isn't a problem in Canada).
Now for sustainability...
Now, a lot of people use sustainable to mean 'can it go on for a fairly long time without crashing', but this isn't really what I think sustainable means. Sustainability, in a more technical sense, asks whether a process can continue by solely utilizing energy derived from Earth's daily solar input combined with geothermal emissions. We can call this the daily energy budget for Earth. Earth has acquired a respectable savings account of energy in the form of hydrocarbons locked up in the crust, produced over aeons by bacteria that built up complex organic compounds utilizing, you guessed it, the daily energy budget.
As a society we are burning through fossil fuels pretty darn quick. This isn't really taking a loan out, rather, our genetic grandparents left us a hefty inheritance and, like some 22 year old, are buying ferraris and hookers left and right. The inheritance simply won't last forever.
So, is capitalism sustainable? No, it isn't. Capitalist development is predicated on returns. We can't get returns on the daily energy budget of Earth because of conservation laws. We CAN get returns on energy production by utilizing our energy budget to construct contraptions that extract energy from our savings account. This is precisely what began the industrial revolution, btw. The moment we started dipping into our savings account, our population, standard of living, rate of growth, all absolutely exploded.
So, our current model isn't sustainable in and of itself, simply because it eats up huge savings far in excess of our daily budget. What capitalist development CAN do, I believe, is get us to a point technologically where we can produce ample standards of livings within our daily budget, i.e. let's get efficient PV, significantly net-positive fusion, well insulated homes, small or 0 commutes, etc. So far, all the returns we have gained from accessing our savings account have been used to develop better and more viscious means of accessing our savings account, meanwhile our actual RoI is crashing horribly (turn of the centry you could get 100b of oil for 1b of energy input, in Alberta today that's more like 3 to 1). If we start diverting a sizable amount of our extacted savings into methods for more efficiently capturing energy from our daily budget, we will be in much better shape when crash time comes. If we are very good at it, maybe there won't be a crash time.
Metaphorically, we can use our inheritance to live freely and wildly for a few awesome years buying ferraris and hookers. Or, we can make some smart investments to live off the interest in later years. Right now our global economy is based on the hookers-and-blow model, and as I mentioned before, the persistence of incentive structures and the entrenched authority and power of those who benefit most from them make it difficult if not impossible to transition out of this mode without outright colllapse. At which point, we might be too broke in terms of cheap energy to make those wise investments.
p.s. apologies for the length.