Can Elon Musk's BFR Project Meet Its Ambitious Timeline for Mars Colonization?

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SUMMARY

Elon Musk's BFR (Big F***ing Rocket) project aims to send two pilotless supply ships to Mars by 2022 as part of a broader colonization plan presented at the International Astronautical Congress. However, based on the historical delays of the Falcon Heavy, which was launched five years behind schedule, experts predict that the first commercial payload on the BFR may not occur until approximately 2037. This estimate considers the allocation of similar engineering resources and the potential for unexpected problems per ton of hardware, suggesting that the timeline for Mars colonization is significantly optimistic.

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Elon Musk presents his updated plan for the colonization of Mars.at the International Astronautical Congress in Australia. First sending two pilotless supply ships to Mars by 2022 using a new rocket, the BFR,.

 
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gleem said:
Elon Musk presents his updated plan for the colonization of Mars.at the International Astronautical Congress in Australia. First sending two pilotless supply ships to Mars by 2022 using a new rocket, the BFR,.


The 1.4kt Falcon Heavy was flown 5 years behind initial schedule. Assuming same engineering resources are allocated to 4.5kt BFR, and amount of unexpected problems per ton of hardware is similar to Falcon Heavy, we are realistically looking for first commercial payload on BFR 15 years behind schedule, in ~2037. Actually delay is likely to be even worse if you use a learning curve estimation with realistic (less than 1) learning coefficient.
 

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