Mars: estimations about its colonization - liquid water issue

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''Elon Musk says he plans to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050 by launching 3 Starship rockets every day and creating 'a lot of jobs' on the red planet''

mars_colony.jpg

It's been a while since Elon made the above statement, however isn't he being extremely optimistic about everything, really?

What are your estimations about the colonization of Mars? Are we even going to send a manned mission there before 2030? How will astronauts let alone civilians react to the horrifically long voyage? Is the voyage length going to decrease substantially in the future? What are the first jobs (professions) going to be``? What's the Martian population going to look like in 2050? 2100?

I acknowledge that there are multiples problems we need to face then solve in order to properly colonize Mars, however having an abundance of liquid water seems quite important to me.
Unfortunately, the Martian pressure is well below the triple point of water, which means that water cannot exist as a liquid. What would possible solutions be to that specific problem?
 
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Drakkith
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It's been a while since Elon made the above statement, however isn't he being extremely optimistic about everything, really?
It's a load of nonsense, mostly. We don't even know how to survive long-term outside of Earth's biosphere.

Are we even going to send a manned mission there before 2030?
It's possible, but it seems unlikely to me.

How will astronauts let alone civilians react to the horrifically long voyage?
We can't know for sure, but people have been doing pretty well spending many months on the ISS, so a 5-6 month journey probably wouldn't be that big of an issue in terms of how people mentally and physically handle it.

I think the bigger problem is one of radiation exposure and the multi-year time frame spent away from Earth that such as mission requires.

Is the voyage length going to decrease substantially in the future?
Probably not. The amount of fuel needed with chemical rockets increases dramatically as you reduce transit time (more fuel needed for longer burns and higher velocities) which drastically increases your spacecraft's mass and expense. Electric thrusters are an option, but they have such low thrust that the burn times are extremely long and may be problematic, not to mention they need huge amounts of electric power.

Mars, however having an abundance of liquid water seems quite important to me.
Unfortunately, the Martian pressure is well below the triple point of water, which means that water cannot exist as a liquid. What would possible solutions be to that specific problem?
Easy. Just melt the ice at the polar caps or other sources of ice water.
 
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Easy. Just melt the ice at the polar caps or other sources of ice water.
Well, isn't ice going to sublime? The pressure is way too low.
 
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TeethWhitener
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Well, isn't ice going to sublime? The pressure is way too low.
The atmospheric pressure on Mars is (coincidentally) almost exactly the pressure at the triple point of water (~600 Pa). However, the temperature on Mars is on average much colder than the triple point, so water will almost always be present in its solid form—especially at the poles, where the ice caps are situated and which experience the coldest weather on Mars.
 
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Is not the launch window a pretty narrow period every 2 years? What is he going to do for the pauses? Send non-human flights with supplies for long duration missions to mars? Is there even fuel and delta V capacity for that on the starship?
 

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