Probabilities and preferences in Everettian QM...
RobinHanson said:
Even if world counts are incoherent, I don't see that the Everett approach gives us the freedom to just pick some other probabilities according to convenient axioms. An objective collapse approach might give one freedom to postulate the collapse probabilities, but in the Everett approach pretty much everything is specified: the only places remaining for uncertainty are regarding particle properties, initial/boundary conditions, indexical uncertainty (i.e., where in this universe are we), and the mapping between our observations and elements of the theory (i.e., what in this universe are we). We might have some freedom to choose out utilities (what we care about) but such freedom doesn't extend to probabilities.
Hello Robin--- Seems reasonable to me to have a single thread on deriving the Born rule with the MWI, so I'll just go ahead and reply! Perhaps what I'm about to say is just rewording what you meant, but I'm not sure. Basically, I tend to agree that within the Everett approach, "we might have some freedom to choose our utilities (what we care about) ... ". Essentially, I'd argue we DO have this freedom (to choose different preference orderings over "quantum lotteries", and that *some* choices of preference orderings may be representable by an additional utility function attached to "decohered outcomes" (or whatever is chosen as "worlds"---definite experiential states, perhaps), plus some "probabilities" for outcomes---i.e. nonnegative numbers adding up to one. These probabilities function solely as a way of representing preferences over "quantum lotteries"--- evolutions leading to superpositions of decohered alternatives (entangled with the rest of the universe). So, they are not probabilities in the sense of standard classical decision theory. But OK, we can still perhaps "choose them" consistent with (a weak version of) "many-worlds". Choosing probabilities *is* choosing preferences, because what *IS*, is the superposition. These probabilties just help "represent" our attitude towardst that. What the "quantum suicide" style arguments point to is that it isn't clear our preferences towards such things shouldn't depend crucially on the fact that it is a superposition, and not a classical lottery... possibly not even be representable in "standard" ways as analogous to those towards a classical lottery. (Payoffs may appear to influence probabilities, for instance.) Who's to say this would be irrational? The Wallace/Deutsch style arguments claim that only a preference ordering representable by the Born rule and maximization of some (variable) utitlity function can be a rational choice in this situation, but I just don't find them convincing.
Incidentally, I've long maintained there was something "funny" about probabilities in the Everett interpretation, but Hilary Greaves and David Wallace have really helped me pinpoint it. I used to like to write as if the probabilities were probabilites of "perspectival" facts, i.e., probability that "I will perceive myself to end up in branch X". Howevever, all those perspectives are actually there (under MWI), in superposition, and ahead of time, there is no fact about which branch I will be in, and indeed, from the perspective from which the decision is made there will NEVER be a fact about which branch I will end up in, because "I" will be continued, having different experiences, in all branches. So it isn't really legitimate to invoke any part of classical decision theory under uncertainty here --- axioms that one might invoke that are formally analogous to those of classical decision theory, are just that: formally analogous, but having a very different content since they refer to quantum lotteries that have entangled superpositions, not definite but currently unknown, outcomes, as results. (This cerrtainly undermines one of Deutsch's original claims, which was to have used classical decision theory to derive the Born rule.) ["Quantum suicide" arguments say: suppose we face an experiment having one really desirable though unlikely outcome, while the world is destroyed if it doesn't--- then wouldn't you prefer that experiment to doing nothing? It's an outlandish situation, of course, but the point it makes is nonetheless worthwhile---- that having a component of something *definitely existing* in a branch of a superposition might be valued in a way very different from its occurence as one of many possible outcomes, a possibility we might want to take into account even in less extreme situations, and which might make it hard to represent nonetheless arguably reasonable preferences by expected utilities over worlds at all... ]
This summer, David Wallace and I were involved in a short "panel discussion" at a conference about the derivation of probabilities in the MWI. I argued that the "measurement neutrality" sorts of arguments involving claims that certain things (like the color of the dial on the measuring device, etc...) shouldn't affect the probabilities of measurement outcomes were analogues of assumptions in classical decision theory (about being able to condition different prizes on events without affecting their probabilities). But, I argued, unlike in the classical case, where we may make auxiliary assumptions about *some* beliefs (independence of likelihood of events from prizes conditioned on them, in many situations) and *some* desires (which prizes we like better), in the quantum case the whole question of how physics gives us probabilities is up for grabs, so we can't just assume that things that clearly are physical differences (dial colors, etc...) just CAN''T affect probabilities. The whole question is what beliefs we should/will assign. David (W) pointed out, though, that there is in fact no belief component here... it's all desire. He was right... and that's pretty much what I'd recognized (stimulated directly and indirectly by Hilary) in other contexts, and what I said above in this posts. Now, sure it's a bad theory to assume that dial color will routinely affect probabilities, and we'd be hard pressed to come up with a reasonable theory of its effects. But it may just be the case that *nothing* really forces us, in terms of pure rationality, to assign ANY probabilities in this case, from an Everettian point of view. There's going to be this superposition, or that superposition, evolving. You choose. What is the "scientific" question here?
Well, OK, you can say science must be a guide to action, so it better at least have some bearing on choice between quantum lotteries, otherwise what's the point. So, to make it (maybe) agree with our erstwhile preferences over quantum lotteries, the ones we had when we thought they had definite outcomes, we could just say by fiat, it should look like utility-maximization with the Born probabilities. Or you could say that the postulates that were hoped to be part of "pure rationality" are to be taken as part of Everettian quantum physics conceived of as a guide to action. But the "quantum suicide" arguments make one question whether one can even do that.
I guess this also relates to my other issue, about "reconstructing the history of science" in light of no experiment ever having had a definite outcome. What we thought were genuine probabilities of outcomes have gotten reinterpreted as perceptions of being in one branch of a superposition... I agree Everettians may want to reconstruct this process as one of discovering "the right sort of preference ordering to have over these superpositions", but, while perhaps not impossible, it strikes me as tricky to go back over a process of scientific reasoning based in part on definite outcomes and "bayesian" probabilistic reasoning, and justify it, or even understand it, in light of the wholly new attitude toward "outcomes" that Everettism represents.