If I recall - the less known issue is that the insulation is really paper, and if there is moisture, the paper has a much higher affinity for it than the oil. Water, in bulk, or condensed out through temp swings may precipitate out to the bottom, and then hold the oil in saturation, rarely ( again in the US) are there pumps to cause mixing and generate a suspension, still only the largest- high duty service units would have pumps (like Generator step up or Arc Furnace trans), and you would not generally have access to the top surface to inspect for this.
PCBs in transformer oil in the USA has been addressed for many years, and it would be extremely unlikely to find one here ( perhaps a 30+ year old pole mount / pop-top), even retro-filled transformers were typically still replaced. Additionally the PCBs themselves are not particularly hazardous in casual exposure. However their byproducts, particularly from combustion ( dioxin) is the broader concern. Also has a particular smell. So a hazard to be aware of but considering all of the hazards associates with electrical work, this is well down the list IMO.
Still to be able to mathematically model the breakdown, it seems to be so many variables, that this would be difficult to have a practical application. So I am sure you could come up with a model of pure oil breakdown, but in reality, how does moisture affect that analysis, how does carbon or cellulose - or high concentrations of the various dissolved gasses... as a simulation of this case in isolation, I am sure best answered by a petroleum chemist.