Can't tell what I am overcounting

  • Thread starter Samuelb88
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In summary, the conversation discusses the computation of the probability of achieving 4 distinct face values when rolling 4 dice at most twice. The solution involves defining events for rolling a certain number of distinct face values and calculating their probabilities. There is also a discussion on checking the sum of probabilities to be 1 and identifying a counting mistake.
  • #1
Samuelb88
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Homework Statement


Compute the probability of achieving 4 distinct face values when you roll 4 dice at most twice.

The Attempt at a Solution


Let Ei denote the event of rolling i distinct face values. Then:
[itex]P(E_4) = \frac{6 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 \cdot 3}{6^4}[/itex]

A roll of 3 distinct face values would look like (x,x,y,z). So there would be [itex]\binom{4}{2}[/itex] choices for the repeat value to appear, and:
[itex]P(E_3) = \frac{\binom{4}{2} 6 \cdot 5 \cdot 4}{6^4}[/itex]

A roll of 2 distinct face values would look like (x,x,y,y), or (x,x,x,y). So:
[itex]P(E_3) = \frac{\binom{4}{2} 6 \cdot 5 + \binom{4}{3} 6 5}{6^4}[/itex]

There are six ways to roll (x,x,x,x). So:
[itex]P(E_3) = \frac{6}{6^4}[/itex]

I need to check that [tex]\sum_{i=1}^4 P(E_i) = 1[/tex]. But:
[itex]\sum_{i=1}^4 P(E_i) = 77/72[/itex]

Would some be so kind to tell me how I've counted wrong?
 
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  • #2
So I've identified the problem. I counted (x,x,y,y) twice.
 

What does it mean to overcount something?

Overcounting refers to counting something more than once, resulting in an inflated total count. This can happen due to human error, faulty measurement techniques, or simply counting the same item or event multiple times.

Can overcounting affect the accuracy of my data?

Yes, overcounting can significantly impact the accuracy of your data. It can lead to misleading conclusions and inaccurate statistics, making it difficult to draw reliable conclusions or make informed decisions based on the data.

How can I avoid overcounting in my research?

To avoid overcounting, it is important to have a clear and consistent method for counting. Double-checking your counts and having another person verify the results can also help reduce the chances of overcounting. Additionally, using technology such as automated counting software can also minimize the risk of human error.

What are some consequences of overcounting in scientific research?

Overcounting can have serious consequences in scientific research. It can lead to incorrect conclusions, wasted time and resources, and a negative impact on the credibility of the research. In some cases, it may even result in the need to redo the research.

Is there a way to correct overcounting in my data?

If you have already identified overcounting in your data, it is important to address it and correct it. This can be done by carefully reviewing and double-checking the data, removing any duplicate counts, and recalculating the totals. It is also important to note and explain any corrections made to the data in your research report.

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