CDC International 4 Level Travel Notice System Math Calculations

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SUMMARY

The CDC International 4 Level Travel Notice System categorizes destinations based on infection rates, specifically marking a level four if the 28-day infection rate exceeds 500 cases per 100,000 population. For Costa Rica, with a population of 5,094,000, the calculation shows that the recent infection rate is significantly higher than the threshold. The WHO reported 5,488 infections on February 11, 2022, indicating a daily count, but the 28-day total from coronalevel.com reveals 140,000 new cases, resulting in an alarming rate of 2,750 cases per 100,000, placing Costa Rica firmly in level four status.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of CDC travel advisories and their categorization system
  • Basic knowledge of infection rate calculations
  • Familiarity with population statistics and their applications
  • Awareness of COVID-19 data sources, such as WHO and coronalevel.com
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the CDC's methodology for determining travel advisories
  • Learn how to calculate infection rates using population data
  • Explore the implications of level four travel advisories on travel plans
  • Investigate other countries' COVID-19 statistics and their travel classifications
USEFUL FOR

Travelers planning international trips, public health officials, and anyone interested in understanding COVID-19 travel advisories and their impact on travel safety.

veithmoore
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TL;DR
The 4 level system categorizes international destinations at a level four the 28 day infection rate per 100,000 > 500.
The population of Costa Rica is 5,094,000.
The WHO had 5,488 infections for 2/11/2022.
How would you calculate the infection rate per 100,000?
5,094,000 ÷ 100,000 = 51
5,488 ÷ 51= 108 cases, well below the 500 case threshold for a level four.
Of note, the highest infection number I saw in the last 28 days was 17,000, which is 333 per 100,000, still < 500.
Thanks!
The 4 level system categorizes international destinations at a level four if the 28 day infection rate per 100,000 > 500.

The population of Costa Rica is 5,094,000.

The WHO had 5,488 infections for 2/11/2022.

How would you calculate the infection rate per 100,000?

5,094,000 ÷ 100,000 = 51

5,488 ÷ 51= 108 cases, well below the 500 case threshold for a level four.

Of note, the highest infection number I saw in the last 28 days was 17,000, which is 333 per 100,000, still < 500.

I would like to travel to Costa Rica next month, but not at a level 4 infection rate.
 
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veithmoore said:
The WHO had 5,488 infections for 2/11/2022.
That's for one day? The CDC definition uses the cases during the last 28 days. Using data from coronalevel.com, Costa Rica had 783,000-643,000 = 140,000 new cases from January 23 to February 20.
140,000/51 = 2750 which is deep in category 4. Close to three percent of the population became a confirmed case in the last 28 days.
 
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