Chinese "weather" balloon shoot-down over US

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  • Thread starter Thread starter Ivan Seeking
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    Balloon Weather
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the recent shoot-down of a Chinese balloon over the US, with participants exploring the implications of the event, the technology involved, and the strategic considerations behind the military response. The conversation touches on military tactics, the nature of the balloon, and the potential information it could gather or transmit.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the balloon was shot down before reaching international waters and that retrieval efforts are planned.
  • There is speculation about the balloon's purpose, with some suggesting it may have been intended for espionage, while others argue that any information gathering efforts were likely jammed by US defenses.
  • Questions arise regarding the use of an AIM-9X missile to target an engineless balloon, with some participants suggesting alternative targeting mechanisms may have been employed.
  • Participants discuss the potential for the balloon to carry a significant payload and the importance of determining what it was carrying.
  • Concerns are raised about the cost-effectiveness of using expensive missiles against the balloon, with some arguing that the military often conducts training exercises that may justify the expenditure.
  • There are references to the balloon's flight path, with some participants speculating on its proximity to sensitive military communications and the implications for US-China relations.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the balloon's capabilities and the US government's changing narrative regarding the decision to shoot it down.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no clear consensus on the balloon's purpose, the appropriateness of the military response, or the implications of the event for US-China relations. The discussion remains unresolved with multiple competing perspectives.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight the uncertainty surrounding the balloon's capabilities, the effectiveness of the military response, and the strategic implications of the incident, indicating that various assumptions and definitions are at play.

  • #241
Do they pack those in powder when they fold them up? I would think there might be electrostatic sticking issues upon launch.....(it is a good question 'cause I sure don't know)
 
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  • #242
hutchphd said:
Do they pack those in powder when they fold them up? I would think there might be electrostatic sticking issues upon launch.....(it is a good question 'cause I sure don't know)
You are referring to the "something inside" comment. Perhaps it's condensation as the pressure (albeit very low) changes. Like a short lived con trail.
 
  • #243
Is there any way ice could have condensed on the interior on the way up? Seems unlikely.
 
  • #244
Not in the interior because they would (presumably) use the purest lift gas available (at the price). I was thinking of the internal gas cooling as it burst. I wonder about the proportion of H2O vapour at that height. It could be higher and probably more stable than it is, lower down.

Which makes me wonder about the lift gas used. H2 has better lifting than He and safety is less of an issue than with passenger craft. Also, it must be a lot cheaper.
 
  • #245
sophiecentaur said:
H2 has better lifting than He
Yeah, but only by 7-8%.

It has the advantage and disadvantage of going boom. If you want to destroy the evidence, it's easy. The political repercussions of gaving something go boom over someone else's country might be less desirable and likely difficult to predict.
 
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  • #246
Oh, I didn’t realise the marginal lift advantage. But He is getting more and more relatively costly.
Plus you can’t get an H balloon to ‘explode’. H will burn rapidly in contact with air as there’s only O2 outside the bag. Wooof is not Bang. I doubt if you’d hear much at 10km distance.
No fun being up there though. A gondola with pyro cable disconnect and a delayed opening chute could land you safely. And think of the money you save.
 

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