Chinese "weather" balloon shoot-down over US

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    Balloon Weather
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the recent shoot-down of a Chinese balloon over the US, with participants exploring the implications of the event, the technology involved, and the strategic considerations behind the military response. The conversation touches on military tactics, the nature of the balloon, and the potential information it could gather or transmit.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the balloon was shot down before reaching international waters and that retrieval efforts are planned.
  • There is speculation about the balloon's purpose, with some suggesting it may have been intended for espionage, while others argue that any information gathering efforts were likely jammed by US defenses.
  • Questions arise regarding the use of an AIM-9X missile to target an engineless balloon, with some participants suggesting alternative targeting mechanisms may have been employed.
  • Participants discuss the potential for the balloon to carry a significant payload and the importance of determining what it was carrying.
  • Concerns are raised about the cost-effectiveness of using expensive missiles against the balloon, with some arguing that the military often conducts training exercises that may justify the expenditure.
  • There are references to the balloon's flight path, with some participants speculating on its proximity to sensitive military communications and the implications for US-China relations.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the balloon's capabilities and the US government's changing narrative regarding the decision to shoot it down.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no clear consensus on the balloon's purpose, the appropriateness of the military response, or the implications of the event for US-China relations. The discussion remains unresolved with multiple competing perspectives.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight the uncertainty surrounding the balloon's capabilities, the effectiveness of the military response, and the strategic implications of the incident, indicating that various assumptions and definitions are at play.

  • #181
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  • #182
One was shot down over Canada - ordered by Trudeau

Earlier they reported there are "objects". But right now, they are only talking about the one.

Haha, there are some reports from pilots that suggest a bit of a mystery - as if one of these might have been something else. That is why they are refraining from calling the 2nd object yesterday, a balloon. We don't know what it was yet - perhaps a drone. There are reports that the avionics on one of more planes sent to identify the object, experienced interference.

Twenty-six drones and similar objects, and 163 balloons or balloon-like objects were identified in the 2022 UAP report from the DNI.
 
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  • #183
Unidentified object" shot down over Canada, Trudeau says
An "unidentified object" which "violated "Canadian airspace" was shot down over Canada Saturday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed.

The object was shot down by a U.S. military F-22 over the Yukon, Trudeau said.

A U.S. official previously confirmed to CBS News Saturday that the object was detected by North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and appeared to be a "high-altitude balloon."

Trudeau tweeted that "Canadian and U.S. aircraft were scrambled" after he "ordered the take down" of the object by NORAD. [continued]
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unidentified-object-shot-down-over-canada-trudeau-says/
 
  • #184
Ivan Seeking said:
'It was a success': White House says a second 'high altitude object' shot down over Alaska
And they just keep coming. :oldcry:
 
  • #185
Frabjous said:
Since this looks like it is going to be a regular occurrence, they now have 10.5 months to develop the technology to not accidentally shoot down Santa.

berkeman said:

Or when Santa starts shooting back?
Santa-in-a-fighter-jet.jpg
 
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  • #186
Hello, what's all this now?
 
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  • #189
Maybe it was invisible. :nb)

uD3wECzLTfNXC2sANYexgd-970-80.jpg
 
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  • #190
Whoops!

U.S. military shoots down unidentified object over Lake Huron​

WASHINGTON — The U.S. military shot down an unidentified object over Lake Huron Sunday, a congressional source briefed on the matter and two U.S. officials told NBC News — the fourth flying object in less than two weeks to be downed over North American airspace
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/na...shot-unidentified-object-lake-huron-rcna70289
 
  • #191
My new theory is the US tipped its hand with its new detection capability with the balloon, so China sent a bunch of small drones over to see which ones the US could detect.
 
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  • #192
Office_Shredder said:
My new theory is the US tipped its hand with its new detection capability with the balloon, so China sent a bunch of small drones over to see which ones the US could detect.
But they haven't mentioned anything to suggest that the other objects came from China. It's just the timing that makes it suspicious.

At the same time, they are getting a lot of flak about letting the balloon fly over the airspace, and pressure to change to a shoot first ask questions later policy. So it wouldn't be too surprising if more objects would be shot down now as part of a crack down.

It could be a little of both.
 
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  • #193
Jarvis323 said:
But they haven't mentioned anything to suggest that the other objects came from China. It's just the timing that makes it suspicious.

At the same time, they are getting a lot of flak about letting the balloon fly over the airspace, and pressure to change to a shoot first ask questions later policy. So it wouldn't be too surprising if more objects would be shot down now as part of a crack down.

It could be a little of both.
Does anyone want to make another lawn-chair Larry flight?
 
  • #194
Ivan Seeking said:
Does anyone want to make another lawn-chair Larry flight?
Seems like kind of dangerous prank to try right now, IMO...
 
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  • #195
berkeman said:
Seems like kind of dangerous prank to try right now, IMO...
Yup! Good way to get killed; even more so than normally.
 
  • #196
Ivan Seeking said:
Yup! Good way to get killed; even more so than normally.
Yes, but how to get to 40,000 ft?
 
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  • #197
fresh_42 said:
Yes, but how to get to 40,000 ft?

Haha, yes, I think Larry only made it to about 16,000, but he did interfere with air traffic.

Imagine having an F-22 flyby while hanging at 16,000 feet on a lawn chair. I've honestly never imagined that before.
 
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  • #198
Kind of like Yeager deer hunting in his fighter at Nellis(?) -- put the cannon on single shot each pass...
 
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  • #201
dlgoff said:
I wonder what it is?

My first guess is a British pig-spy balloon

ik=HVk2TYDe70u4iA&riu=http%3a%2f%2fcdn.newsapi.com.jpg
 
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  • #202
Jarvis323 said:
Which could be tricky. While you are jamming it and collecting information about it, hopefully it/or they (with other means) aren't gathering information about how you jam signals and gather information, which resources you use to do it with, and where those resources are based. Further, you hope it isn't gathering information about your strategy to prevent them from being able to gather information about how you gather information.
Two questions:

(i.) How would spying be done if these were actual spy balloons? Are they video recording things? Audio recording? At what distance could such presumed spying be done?
(ii.) Wouldn't a spy balloon seem too obvious of a vehicle to use? These things are quite big and attention-attracting, no?
 
  • #203
kyphysics said:
Two questions:

(i.) How would spying be done if these were actual spy balloons? Are they video recording things? Audio recording? At what distance could such presumed spying be done?
(ii.) Wouldn't a spy balloon seem too obvious of a vehicle to use? These things are quite big and attention-attracting, no?
I. Ping images / recordings to a satellite?
2. More interesting. It was very large so how did it slip under the radar? Very fast moving objects like jets, missiles would be a priority for defence systems @Astranut. How do those same systems treat a flock of birds? A glider? Private plane? A big balloon ?EDIT:I googled and there lot of info on how they deal with different objects and “clutter”

The link, it is a bit technical for me. @Ivan Seeking can help?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar“Clutter refers to radio frequency (RF) echoes returned from targets which are uninteresting to the radar operators.

Such targets include natural objects such as ground, sea, and when not being tasked for meteorological purposes, precipitation (such as rain, snow or hail),

sand storms, animals (especially birds), atmospheric turbulence, and other atmospheric effects, such as ionosphere reflections, meteor trails, and hail spike.

Clutter may also be returned from man-made objects such as buildings and, intentionally, by radar countermeasures such as chaff.”
 
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  • #204
gmax137 said:
I was kind of hoping we could figure a way to just quietly deflate the balloon and catch it on the way down, or as it hit the water. So that it would just disappear, to be studied at our leisure, with everyone wondering if we had it or not.
My thoughts too. Regular cannon rounds could be placed into the envelope which would deflate and act as a parachute. Th terminal velocity would be a lot lower than for the payload itself, I'd have thought.

Then what about the other 'flying objects'? They could be downed easily with cannon fire. A missile sounds like a sledgehammer to crack a walnut. The propulsion method is interesting. Its altitude seems very high for a quadcopter. If 'they' have a good propulsion system then the West could be in a poor situation.
 
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  • #205
Sun Tzu said:
The general adept at defense hides in the deepest caves of the Earth; he who is skillful in attack descends from the highest heights of heaven.
 
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  • #206
 
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  • #207
. Air Force General Glen VanHerck set the internet ablaze when he left open the possibility that the multiple flying objects shot down over North American air space by American fighter jets on Super Bowl weekend could be anything, including UFOs related to extra-terrestrial activity.

Specifically asked whether the downed objects could have extraterrestrial origins — aliens, that is — VanHerck replied: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven’t ruled out anything.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u...pc=U531&cvid=d638959fb41949f4b8a7aee95c6606c9
 
  • #208
Ivan Seeking said:
. Air Force General Glen VanHerck set the internet ablaze when he left open the possibility that the multiple flying objects shot down over North American air space by American fighter jets on Super Bowl weekend could be anything, including UFOs related to extra-terrestrial activity.

Specifically asked whether the downed objects could have extraterrestrial origins — aliens, that is — VanHerck replied: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven’t ruled out anything.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u...pc=U531&cvid=d638959fb41949f4b8a7aee95c6606c9
Just FYI:

General Glen D. VanHerck is Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). NORAD conducts aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning in the defense of North America. USNORTHCOM partners to conduct homeland defense, civil support, and security cooperation to defend and secure the United States and its interests.
https://www.defense.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/2323163/glen-d-vanherck/
 
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  • #209
So it is ironic that in 1947 the gummint sought to prevent panic by claiming the downed UFO was a weather balloon, but today they claim the foreign "weather" balloon might really be an alien UFO...
 
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  • #210
I think it is a weather balloon. The Chinese wanted to know "weather" the US would detect it and "weather" it would then shoot it down.
 
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