Surviving the Apocalypse: The Future of Computing Technology

[stevendaryl]

If there were some kind of catastrophe that ended civilization, is there any way that the survivors could continue to use computers? I suppose modern electronic equipment can last pretty long before it starts breaking down, but the replacement components, semiconductor chips, wouldn't be manufactured by our plucky gang of survivors. I would think it would require too much infrastructure. Maybe they could go back to using vacuum-tubes, which might be more feasible for a small group to manufacture on their own.

Or maybe someday soon, people will invent biologically-based computation using DNA, and then it would just be necessary to keep the line of computing organisms alive.

Thoughts?

 

[hmmm27]

It'd be much easier keeping a reasonably stocked library safe from pillaging for a couple hundred years, than keeping an iPhone from being dropped for a couple of months.

 

[Bystander]

from being dropped for a couple of months.

..., or the batteries charged.

 

[stevendaryl]

I've often wondered if someone equipped with a decent science education could, when dropped into a non-technological (or post-technological), could re-invent much of modern technology. It seems to me that there is just so much infrastructure involved in everything that a single person, or even a small community, would have a really hard time, even if they had all the knowledge.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

If civilisation collapses it collapses. There is no video game-like downgrade button that can quickly replace infrastructure with less capable versions of itself. How many people actually know how to build a vacuum tube computer? Or how to use one? Also to make one you’d need a glass blowing industry (for borosilicate no less), mines and refineries for metals like copper, chemical factories for making compressed gases if you’re going for low pressure types, rubber plantations and refineries to make the seals, transport and communication infrastructure to provide the logistics backbone for all these industries etc etc. And all of these industries need support industries of their own: like medicine to keep the workers healthy, education to ensure a pool of skilled labour, security to prevent crime etc.

We tend to forget that technological economies operate by disparate groups of interacting specialists. A few plucky survivors with some basic tools and elbow grease aren’t going to knock up equipment in their shed without at least a rudimentary industrial economy to supply them with the specialist parts and services they need.

Building some sort of secure facility that houses tools, a library and a comprehensive diagram of how to form an agrarian society and progress it through to a post industrial one would be the best strategy of aiding a faster rebuild of civilisation. Or even better (but not necessarily ethical) set up an industrial state with strict autarky and not allow any trade with the outside world. Keeping a bare minimum sustainable economy going is easier than restarting one, even if life would suck for the participants.

 

[Rive]

The computers could be kept working for a decade or two if there is enough spare components around, but what would you do without the Internet? Usually there is just a limited amount of data stored locally (limited, as compared to the amount available online).

These days even games needs Internet.

You might be able to dig up a copy of Doom somewhere in the attic and do a lanparty as preparation for the Coming of the Horsemen.

Ps.: in case of any Apocalypse an old style paper based library is just priceless on long term.

 

[sandy stone]

Don't forget to stockpile some eyeglasses too!

 

[TeethWhitener]

..., or the batteries charged.

My wife and I have solar phone chargers (for camping/just in case).

 

[DaveC426913]

First thing I'd do is make hard copies of anything from the electronic device that I thought would be needed.

Once a device stops working - that information is inaccessible. It's just not worth it.

 

[BillTre]

Classic Sci-Fi takes on post-apocalyptic attempts at rebuilding technology by various means:

The Foundation Trilogy
A Canticle for Leibowitz

 

[DaveC426913]

Classic Sci-Fi takes on post-apocalyptic attempts at rebuilding technology by various means:

The Foundation Trilogy
A Canticle for Leibowitz

Read them both.

[ EDIT ]
I lie. I read the first half of Foundation, and dozed my way through most of Leibowitz. I am going to sci-fi hell.

 

[Dr Wu]

One possible (if admittedly futuristic) way to side-step a global catastrophe, as envisioned by the OP, would require fully self-sustaining offworld communities. Such space-age refuges would be like the Christian monasteries during the (rightly?) so-called Dark Ages, but with wikipedia instead of scriptoria.

IMO the second and third volumes of The Foundation Trilogy - Foundation & Empire esp - are well worth reading. The last third of the first volume, Foundation, I did find quite tedious, though. . . all that Hober Mallow nonsense.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

One possible (if admittedly futuristic) way to side-step a global catastrophe, as envisioned by the OP, would require fully self-sustaining offworld communities. Such space-age refuges would be like the Christian monasteries during the (rightly?) so-called Dark Ages, but with wikipedia instead of scriptoria.

That’s basically what I was getting at with the self sufficient state comment above. Building such a place in space seems like a hugely increased expense for little reward. For the price of one economically and ecologically self sufficient space station you could build countless more surface habitats. Short of some globally powerful pogrom that somehow doesn’t reach anywhere in space more sustainable surface back ups should be sufficient for near anything.

 

[Tiran]

What do you need the computers to do? Most of the '60s space program was calculated by hand. We use computers to deal with technology that uses computers.

That said, once the power goes out you'll have more available laptops to mine for parts than you could ever need for whatever post-apocalyptic scenario. You could build huge parallel supercomputers just with USB cables.

 

[Nik_2213]

Even 'simple' thermionic valves have issues. Those lead-outs are not just 'wire', they're an exquisite alloy with expansion characteristics so-closely matched to the glass envelope. The 'dull' patch on the inside is probably where the 'getter' has cleaned up residual atmosphere left by the 'vacuum' pump...

How long will even a solar-powered 'scientific' calculator last before PV cells, screen & keys die ? A couple of decades ? So, pack 'Log' tables and a slide-rule...

Oh, and pack a 'Teach Yourself Abacus', too.

 

[phinds]

The computers could be kept working for a decade or two if there is enough spare components around ...

And where would the power come from?

 

[Rive]

And where would the power come from?

To get limited quality/amount electric power is not really a big issue: most PC PSU would work from ~ 80V to 240V, DC&AC anyway. But what would be able to replace all the information from the internet? I found that a more pressing problem in case of any Apocalypse - it would undermine the reason to have a PC running (as they are regularly used now).

 

[phinds]

To get limited quality/amount electric power is not really a big issue

I ask again, where would the power come from? You mentioned a decade or two. I don't think you can justify that.

 

[Rive]

Old style (small) water power plants will be available that long in case they are supplying power for small, off-grid communities only, not at full power, not at 24/7. Same for amateur/small scale wind and water power sources, even extreme/funny ones like some built from existing water/windmills .
PV can supply unregulated DC within the desired range (without charge controller or inverter) that long.

 

[phinds]

Old style (small) water power plants will be available that long in case they are supplying power for small, off-grid communities only, not at full power, not at 24/7. Same for amateur/small scale wind and water power sources, even extreme/funny ones like some built from existing water/windmills .
PV can supply unregulated DC within the desired range (without charge controller or inverter) that long.

I understand your argument but what about, just to mention one problem, replacement parts when things break?

You may be right on this but I think you underestimate the amount of modern infrastructure that even "off grid" systems depend on.

 

[Rive]

You may be right on this but I think you underestimate the amount of modern infrastructure that even "off grid" systems depend on.

I said 'old'. Definitely not said 'modern'...
That kind of 'old' that you have to pay an entry fee to see it still working after a half dozen decades (or more)...

 

[Ryan_m_b]

I said 'old'. Definitely not said 'modern'...
That kind of 'old' that you have to pay an entry fee to see it still working after a half dozen decades (or more)...

Machines made out of stone, wood and simple forged metals (like waterwheels) still require a lot of maintenance and skilled labour. Not to mention supply chains for the various materials. Granted the complexity and size of an economy to maintain a watermill is much lower than something like a solar power station, but it's also far less capable.

On top of that even once you have your water mill you will still need a copper industry (mining and refining) for the wires, some form of resin/rubber for wire casings (unless you don't mind the risk of electrocuting some of your few, expensive to train electrical engineers), a chemical industry to build the batteries etc. For more see my reply on the earlier page.

Even if you did stockpile enough parts to do this what you'd end up with is a barn with an aging computer. One with no internet access, no possibility of spare parts, and which takes up plenty of economic activity to keep safe and supplied. On top of that there's the issue that turning written/video knowledge into skill is significantly facilitated by skilled teachers who know what they're talking about. Yes it's possible to teach yourself from a textbook and it's certainly easier than rediscovery, but it's harder and more dangerous than having a teacher.

If you want to prepare for the fall of civilisation working to keep one computer running isn't going to cut it. Storing enough supplies, a library and a short-list of experts (a list that likely wouldn't be short at all, but run to a small city in size to cover the breadth of specialities needed in an advanced economy) would be a better strategy. This town might be able to maintain a decent economy on its store of equipment long enough to bootstrap something more sustainable.

 

[Rive]

Machines made out of stone, wood and simple forged metals (like waterwheels) still require a lot of maintenance and skilled labour. Not to mention supply chains for the various materials. Granted the complexity and size of an economy to maintain a watermill is much lower than something like a solar power station, but it's also far less capable.

Can't really get your point. The question stripped out from its context was about the availability of a few hundred watts through some decades: not even the continuous availability was requested. No need for exact frequency, voltage or anything special, since the target device can take care of all that (with anything else it would be far more difficult, but to pick computers... Well, like a discussion about the 'difficulties' of feeding cockroaches...). The required level of maintenance for the mentioned type of power source ~ fits for the last decade of XIX. century. (The also mentioned PV requires even less than that.) It is exactly the level of technology which still can be done by relatively small communities with limited (and: mostly inherited) technology.

n top of that even once you have your water mill you will still need a copper industry

No, you don't. Unless the question was mistaken to be 'start from scratch' instead of 'after the Apocalypse' there would be high quality materials laying around - without background to properly process and utilize them. It is just different genre within sci-fi.

Even if you did stockpile enough parts to do this what you'd end up with is a barn with an aging computer.

That was just not the question. The problem of power source was stripped out from the context of my previous comment here.

 

[russ_watters]

But what would be able to replace all the information from the internet? I found that a more pressing problem in case of any Apocalypse - it would undermine the reason to have a PC running (as they are regularly used now).

I don't see this at all. The PC revolution predated the modern internet by 15 years. Are you too young to remember how people used PCs then?

Most of what the internet is used for today in business is non-essential; it's emailing people a building or town away that I could go visit or call. It's googling things I could look up in the handbook on the shelf behind me. The internet makes me more efficient, but it is not essential for doing my job (construction engineering; essential to re-building a civilization).

The biggest problem would be internet licensing control for software. But trust me: enough people still have open, once-legal copies of the software they need to spread it around and be productive.

AutoCAD and Excel are all you really need from a computer to design buildings.

 

[Rive]

It's googling things I could look up in the handbook on the shelf behind me.

That part comes with a bunch of different problems: most engineering resources I know about are for new materials, but at least materials provided by strict standards. And while it seems possible to have enough energy to run some computers, I see no real way to maintain the necessary level of background to have all those (and still calling it 'Apocalypse').

We might try to define the necessary level of collapse needed to match the description.

ps.:

Are you too young to remember how people used PCs then?

No, actually I'm one of those with some still valid oldtimer software (with offline licenses) and a bunch of archived stuff

 

[member 656954]

There is an excellent book, "The World Without Us" written by American journalist Alan Weisman that describes how various aspects of our built environment will handle everyone just vanishing. It's not specifically intended to be apocalyptic, but it definitely contextualizes what elements of our tech will last about how long, so might be worth a read to frame your ideas.

As for a specific response, as others have pointed out, computers are complex manufactured items, even at the 'basic' level. Babbage could not get his analytical engine to work supposedly because while the idea was OK, the engineering precision at the time wasn't up to the task. Multiply that by a gazillion for the degree of difficulty that goes into the wonders that we interact with on a daily basis.