Conditional probability with marginal and joint density

In summary, conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is calculated by dividing the joint probability of the two events by the marginal probability of the given event. Joint probability is the probability of two events occurring together at the same time, while marginal probability is the probability of a single event occurring without taking into account any other events. In scientific research, conditional probability is useful for making more accurate predictions and identifying relationships between variables. Real-world applications of conditional probability include weather forecasting, medical diagnosis, financial analysis, and machine learning.
  • #1
Linder88
25
0

Homework Statement


Determine ##P(X<Y|x>0)##

Homework Equations


X and Y are random variables with the joint density function
$$
f_{XY}(x,y)=
\begin{cases}
4|xy|,-y<x<y,0<y<1\\
0,elsewhere
\end{cases}$$
The marginal densities are given by
$$
f_X(x)=2x\\
f_Y(y)=4y^3
$$

The Attempt at a Solution


The formula for conditional probability is
$$
P(B|A)=\frac{P(B\cap A)}{P(A)}
$$
In this case we have
$$
P(X<Y|x>0)=\frac{P(X<Y\cap x>0)}{P(x>0)}=\frac{F_{XY}(x,y)}{F_X(x)}=\frac{\int_{}4|xy|dxdy}{\int_0^{\infty}2xdx}
$$
This is where I get stuck, I do not know what boundaries I should put for the joint density function, can someone please help me?
 
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  • #2
Linder88 said:

Homework Statement


Determine ##P(X<Y|x>0)##

Homework Equations


X and Y are random variables with the joint density function
$$
f_{XY}(x,y)=
\begin{cases}
4|xy|,-y<x<y,0<y<1\\
0,elsewhere
\end{cases}$$
The marginal densities are given by
$$
f_X(x)=2x\\
f_Y(y)=4y^3
$$

The Attempt at a Solution


The formula for conditional probability is
$$
P(B|A)=\frac{P(B\cap A)}{P(A)}
$$
In this case we have
$$
P(X<Y|x>0)=\frac{P(X<Y\cap x>0)}{P(x>0)}=\frac{F_{XY}(x,y)}{F_X(x)}=\frac{\int_{}4|xy|dxdy}{\int_0^{\infty}2xdx}
$$
This is where I get stuck, I do not know what boundaries I should put for the joint density function, can someone please help me?

Draw the lines ##x=y##, ##x=-y##, ##y=0##, and ##y=1##. Shade the part where x and y are between the appropriate lines. The limits are just like in any double integral in calculus. Also, I didn't check your work but surely if the marginal density is ##2x##, it wouldn't be valid clear to ##\infty##.
 
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  • #3
Linder88 said:

Homework Statement


Determine ##P(X<Y|x>0)##

Homework Equations


X and Y are random variables with the joint density function
$$
f_{XY}(x,y)=
\begin{cases}
4|xy|,-y<x<y,0<y<1\\
0,elsewhere
\end{cases}$$
The marginal densities are given by
$$
f_X(x)=2x\\
f_Y(y)=4y^3
$$

The Attempt at a Solution


The formula for conditional probability is
$$
P(B|A)=\frac{P(B\cap A)}{P(A)}
$$
In this case we have
$$
P(X<Y|x>0)=\frac{P(X<Y\cap x>0)}{P(x>0)}=\frac{F_{XY}(x,y)}{F_X(x)}=\frac{\int_{}4|xy|dxdy}{\int_0^{\infty}2xdx}
$$
This is where I get stuck, I do not know what boundaries I should put for the joint density function, can someone please help me?

You claimed ##f_X(x) = 2x## cannot possibly be correct. In the sample space, ##x## is allowed to be both ##< 0## and ##>0##, and when ##x < 0## your formula delivers a negative probability.
 
  • #4
LCKurtz said:
Draw the lines ##x=y##, ##x=-y##, ##y=0##, and ##y=1##. Shade the part where x and y are between the appropriate lines. The limits are just like in any double integral in calculus. Also, I didn't check your work but surely if the marginal density is ##2x##, it wouldn't be valid clear to ##\infty##.
The shaded area is a inverted triangle in the upper half of the plane with y vertical and x horizontal, so we have that
$$
P(X<Y|x>0)=\frac{\int_0^1\int_{-y}^y4|xy|dxdy}{\int_0^12xdx}=\frac{1}{1}=1
$$
I guess this concludes this topic, thanks :)
 
  • #5
Linder88 said:
The shaded area is a inverted triangle in the upper half of the plane with y vertical and x horizontal, so we have that
$$
P(X<Y|x>0)=\frac{\int_0^1\int_{-y}^y4|xy|dxdy}{\int_0^12xdx}=\frac{1}{1}=1
$$
I guess this concludes this topic, thanks :)

For the record: your final answer is correct, but you have computed ##f_X(x)## incorrectly. You should have gotten
[tex] f_X(x) = \frac{1}{2} |x| ( 1 - x^2),\; 0 \leq x \leq 1 [/tex]
Unlike your answer, this has ##f_X > 0## for both ##-1 < x < 0## and ##0 < x < 1##.
 
  • #6
Ray Vickson said:
For the record: your final answer is correct, but you have computed ##f_X(x)## incorrectly. You should have gotten
[tex] f_X(x) = \frac{1}{2} |x| ( 1 - x^2),\; 0 \leq x \leq 1 [/tex]
Unlike your answer, this has ##f_X > 0## for both ##-1 < x < 0## and ##0 < x < 1##.

Did you mean $$2*|x| ( 1 - x^2),\; 0 \leq x \leq 1\text{ ?}$$
 
  • #7
LCKurtz said:
Did you mean $$2*|x| ( 1 - x^2),\; 0 \leq x \leq 1\text{ ?}$$

Yes. I accidentally omitted the factor '4' in front, so got 1/2 instead of 4/2 = 2.
 

What is conditional probability?

Conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is represented as P(A|B), where A is the event of interest and B is the given event. This takes into account the knowledge of the given event and updates the probability of the event of interest accordingly.

How is conditional probability calculated?

Conditional probability is calculated by dividing the joint probability of the two events by the marginal probability of the given event. This can be represented as P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / P(B). The joint probability can be found by multiplying the individual probabilities of the two events.

What is the difference between joint probability and marginal probability?

Joint probability is the probability of two events occurring together at the same time. It is represented as P(A∩B). Marginal probability, on the other hand, is the probability of a single event occurring without taking into account any other events. It is represented as P(A) or P(B).

How is conditional probability useful in scientific research?

Conditional probability is useful in scientific research as it allows for a more accurate prediction of the likelihood of an event occurring based on the knowledge of another event. It can also help identify the relationship between two variables and how they affect each other.

What are some real-world applications of conditional probability?

Conditional probability has various real-world applications, such as in weather forecasting, medical diagnosis, and financial analysis. It is also commonly used in machine learning and data analysis to make predictions and identify patterns in data.

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