Hi everybody,(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

I'm a physicist, not a statistician, by training and my knowledge of statistics is severely limited. I indulge in sports betting where I typically bet on the exact score of a game. To see whether my approach works I have to know whether I'm winning or not - to be precise, I must know whether my small profit is genuine or merely a statistical fluctuation. In other words I want to know, given the number of games and the observed profit, what is the probability that the average yield per bet is positive? If I were betting just on events with two possible outcomes I think I could just use the information on [1] but how does this generalise to a larger number of outcomes (i.e. so that 50% correct is not the break-even point) ?

I know this is pretty broad and I don't really expect a page-long reply on how exactly to go about doing this (though it would be greatly appreciated). I'd be grateful if you could just steer me in the right direction -- what should I be googling for?

Thanks in advance.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval

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# Confidence in investment yield, betting

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