This is an attempt to settle a dinner table dispute. The background is that it just made the news that a guy won $1M in a scratch off game at the gas station at the end of my road. My brother then remarked: "Well, we know which station NOT to buy from. What are the chances of two winners at the same store?"(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

The broad question is this:

Is the probability of my next scratch off purchase being a winner reduced by choosing to purchase the ticket from the same store that just won?

My contention is that my chances are not affected by this fact; that it's an independent event. I've attempted to explain this with a simplified scenario, but am not having great success.

The idea is not fully fleshed out, so you can make some reasonable assumptions. Finite number of tickets; multiple, but small number, of jackpot winning tickets; finite number of stores, etc.

So, who's right? A small bet is on the line! Thanks!

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# Probability of winning scratch off lottery from a store that just sold a winner

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