Cost Estimation capacity exponent formula

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the cost estimation formula used to calculate the cost of equipment or plants based on their capacity. Participants explore how to adapt this formula to derive cost per unit of production, particularly in the context of power generation and other industrial applications.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents the formula Cost B = Cost A * (CapacityB/Capacity A)^n and seeks to modify it for cost per unit of production, suggesting a potential connection to logarithms.
  • Another participant questions the units involved in the formula, asking whether Cost B refers to a daily cost for the plant or a cost per item produced, and seeks clarification on the units of Capacity B.
  • A participant clarifies that Cost B represents total capital cost and provides an example of calculating costs for different boiler capacities using the exponent.
  • One participant expresses a desire to understand how to express the cost in terms of $/tph instead of total currency, indicating a need for a different formula for cost comparison.
  • Another participant elaborates on the context of their inquiry, explaining the challenges of finding known values for cost estimation and the use of indices from industry guides for power plants.
  • One participant suggests that while changing the units of capacity to include a time component is possible, it may not yield accurate correlations.
  • A participant mentions the complexity of modeling multiple cases in an Excel spreadsheet and hints at the possibility of a simpler method for cost estimation.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

The discussion features multiple competing views and remains unresolved regarding the best approach to modify the cost estimation formula for cost per unit of production. Participants express uncertainty about the appropriate units and the implications of their calculations.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight limitations in accessing "known" values for cost estimation, which are often proprietary, and the potential for errors when converting between different cost formats in large datasets.

LT Judd
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TL;DR
How to modify the capacity exponent formula for cost per unit of capacity
To estimate the cost of an item of equipment or plant from another of a known cost and size or capacity , we use a well known formula Cost B = Cost A * ( CapacityB/Capacity A)^n, where n is a factor usually around 0.5-0.8 depending on the plant or equipment involved. These exponents are published in various books and publications,How do you modify this formula to get the cost per unit of production. For example ,the $/MW of a 3MW Boiler vs a known 100 MW Boiler. I can convert it to total cost , perform the calculation then turn it back into cost per unit, but I thought there may be a more "elegant" way to do it. I have a feeling it has something to do with logarithms , but just can't get my head around it.
 
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LT Judd said:
Cost B = Cost A * ( CapacityB/Capacity A)^n,

What are the units in that formula? Cost B, is that $/day for the plant or $/item made?
Capacity B, is that units per day? Units per dollar?
 
anorlunda said:
What are the units in that formula? Cost B, is that $/day for the plant or $/item made?
Capacity B, is that units per day? Units per dollar?
No, For the first formula, it's total capital cost so for example it might cost 200k to purchase an 11 tonne per hour boiler how much does it cost to buy a 25 tonne per hour boiler if the exponent is 0.7. I understand that part.
What I want know is what's the formula if instead of $ for cost, you use $/tph.
 
LT Judd said:
What I want know is what's the formula if instead of $ for cost, you use $/tph.

For cost, the units are currency. $/currency capacity (edit) is a different unit. Can you explain what you mean by this, or clarify your question? This sounds like you may be trying to optimize capacity, rather than calculate cost for just a larger widget.

The units on the upscale calculation are pretty self-evident.

If a 10 ton unit costs $1,000, then using this formula, a 20 ton unit costs $1,625, using a 0.7 exponent if my arithmetic is right.

You can attempt to change the units of capacity to incorporate a time component, but the correlation won't necessarily be correct. I am not sure I am answering the question you are asking.
 
Last edited:
Sorry didnt explain myself very well, Its really a maths problem rather than an engineering one.
I am trying to do a cost comparison of different types of power generating plant. One standard way to do that is to find a known plant of a certain size at a certain time in a certain place and then convert it to the present time and the desired capacity and the desired location via a number of indices which are available in various textbooks and publications , with the formula from my first post.
In my case I am talking about power plant, but the same idea applies to chemical plant and indeed individual items of major equipment in such plants , and I am only talking about the capacity index , not the time or place.
For some one who is not a professional estimator in business like myself , The "known" values are hard to come by as they are usually the IP of large firms and consultants. What is publically available is often quoted in ($/kw ) or dollars per some other parameter for equipment of a certain size .
For example a industry guide may say;
for a theoretical plant of 380 MW , major equipment cost may be xx/MW, grid connection cost may be YY/ MW and Balance of plant may be ZZ/kw. exponents for each may be different.
In my case I have the "known figure" in $/MW and the out put in $/MW, I can convert the known figure to total dollars , do the calculation and then convert back again, but because I am trying to model a large number of case in a large excel spreadsheet , that introduces more chances of error and is a bit unwieldy. Something tells me there must be a simpler way but can't quite think of it.
See attached diagram , the right hand one is what I imagine the relationship between cost per unit and capacity must look like.
Is one the integral of the other or something like that?
 

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