Daily survival probability: why does conditioning on waking up change the odds?

[berkeman]

Update -- user @AplanisTophet has left us, so thread it reopened.

 

[pinball1970]

Update -- user @AplanisTophet has left us, so thread it reopened.

I was thinking of starting a new thread as the original OP was not he half as interesting as fresh_42 's prisoner link and Peroks explanations.

 

[PeroK]

I was thinking of starting a new thread as the original OP was not he half as interesting as fresh_42 's prisoner link and Peroks explanations.

I'm on a train with no WiFi, but I can post my analysis tomorrow if you start a thread on the prisoner paradox.

 

[pinball1970]

I'm on a train with no WiFi, but I can post my analysis tomorrow if you start a thread on the prisoner paradox.

Great will do.