Diminishing returns from particle accelerators

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of diminishing returns in particle accelerators and the implications for uncovering new physics. Participants explore the challenges of increasing energy levels and the potential need for alternative approaches in experimental setups.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express concern that increasing the Lorentz factor in particle accelerators may lead to diminishing returns in discovering new physics.
  • Feynman's perspective is mentioned, suggesting that fundamental scientific discoveries may become increasingly difficult over time.
  • One participant draws a parallel between diminishing returns in particle accelerators and mining, noting that as easily accessible resources are depleted, the returns on investment decrease.
  • Another participant compares the trends in particle physics to Moore's Law, indicating that both may experience a flattening of returns.
  • There is a reference to Stein's Law, suggesting that unsustainable trends will eventually cease, which may apply to particle accelerators.
  • A participant notes that while microprocessor technology has predictable limits, high-energy physics may still hold undiscovered phenomena at higher energy levels.
  • Concerns are raised about inefficiencies increasing with the size of particle accelerators, contrasting with the efficiency improvements seen in smaller microprocessors.
  • Some participants propose that uncovering new physics might require advancements in detector technology or other aspects of experimental setups, rather than solely relying on higher energy levels.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus; multiple competing views remain regarding the implications of diminishing returns in particle accelerators and the potential for new discoveries.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight various assumptions and conditions, such as the unpredictability of discoveries at higher energy levels and the differences in efficiency dynamics between particle accelerators and microprocessors.

BWV
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Curious about this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particle_accelerator)
Particle_Accelerator_Livingston_Chart_2010.png

which indicates diminishing returns on new particle accelerators. However to uncover new physics, presumably you need to keep increasing the Lorentz factor by the roughly 10x trend here:

LorentzFactor-1024x768.png

So is this hopeless?
 
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Feynman writes about this in the Character of Physical Law. He did forecast that it likely will become increasingly difficult to get fundamental scientific discoveries.
 
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I think this doesn't just apply to particle accelerators but to pretty much everything. Like mining ore for example, the easily accessible one gets mined first and fastest, then as you go deeper for more the ore gets less and you get more investment for less return.

Those graphs seem oddly similar to Moore's law for example, and we know now we are at the point where the climb in the graph is going flat.
 
artis said:
Those graphs seem oddly similar to Moore's law

These are both cases of Stein's Law. "Things that can't go on forever won't."
 
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possibly related...
One interesting comment in the Powers of Ten video...

on the return trip
(?t=5m10s) "Notice the alternation between great activity and relative inactivity, a rhythm that will continue..."

 
Although to note one thing, unlike the feature size on microprocessor architecture where we know there won't be any surprises and a minimum is/will soon be reached in high energy physics we don't know whether or not something interesting might still be hiding at a higher energy that we have not yet accessed.

So in a sense it's not a straight forward comparison
 
Also there is a positive feedback with moores law - smaller microprocessors are more efficient (per transistor) than larger ones - the power usage of processors has remained about flat for the last 20 years - with particle accelerators inefficiencies would increase with size

1619294326782.jpeg
 

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Well, to uncover new physics one may need something else apart from higher energy, for example, detector/technical development in some other part of the experimental setup.
 
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