Diminishing returns from particle accelerators

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the diminishing returns observed in particle accelerators, particularly in relation to the Lorentz factor and the challenges of uncovering new physics. Participants reference Richard Feynman's insights from "The Character of Physical Law," highlighting the increasing difficulty of achieving fundamental scientific discoveries as resources are exhausted. Comparisons are drawn to Moore's Law and Stein's Law, emphasizing the parallels in technological advancements and the eventual plateauing of returns. The conversation concludes that advancements in particle physics may require innovations beyond just increasing energy levels, such as improvements in detector technology.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of the Lorentz factor in particle physics
  • Familiarity with Moore's Law and its implications in technology
  • Knowledge of Stein's Law and its relevance to resource utilization
  • Basic concepts of particle accelerator technology and its operational challenges
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  • Research advancements in detector technology for particle physics experiments
  • Explore the implications of Stein's Law on resource management in scientific research
  • Investigate alternative methods for uncovering new physics beyond energy increases
  • Study the historical context and future predictions of Moore's Law in computing
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Physicists, engineers, and researchers involved in high-energy physics, as well as technology analysts interested in the limits of scientific discovery and resource management in experimental setups.

BWV
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Curious about this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particle_accelerator)
Particle_Accelerator_Livingston_Chart_2010.png

which indicates diminishing returns on new particle accelerators. However to uncover new physics, presumably you need to keep increasing the Lorentz factor by the roughly 10x trend here:

LorentzFactor-1024x768.png

So is this hopeless?
 
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Feynman writes about this in the Character of Physical Law. He did forecast that it likely will become increasingly difficult to get fundamental scientific discoveries.
 
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I think this doesn't just apply to particle accelerators but to pretty much everything. Like mining ore for example, the easily accessible one gets mined first and fastest, then as you go deeper for more the ore gets less and you get more investment for less return.

Those graphs seem oddly similar to Moore's law for example, and we know now we are at the point where the climb in the graph is going flat.
 
artis said:
Those graphs seem oddly similar to Moore's law

These are both cases of Stein's Law. "Things that can't go on forever won't."
 
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possibly related...
One interesting comment in the Powers of Ten video...

on the return trip
(?t=5m10s) "Notice the alternation between great activity and relative inactivity, a rhythm that will continue..."

 
Although to note one thing, unlike the feature size on microprocessor architecture where we know there won't be any surprises and a minimum is/will soon be reached in high energy physics we don't know whether or not something interesting might still be hiding at a higher energy that we have not yet accessed.

So in a sense it's not a straight forward comparison
 
Also there is a positive feedback with moores law - smaller microprocessors are more efficient (per transistor) than larger ones - the power usage of processors has remained about flat for the last 20 years - with particle accelerators inefficiencies would increase with size

1619294326782.jpeg
 

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Well, to uncover new physics one may need something else apart from higher energy, for example, detector/technical development in some other part of the experimental setup.
 
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