russ_watters said:
Since science was invented at the time of Newton (essentially by him and Galileo), you can't extrapolate back further than him. The learning curve is a good analogy that you didn't develop: the cup analogy is an improper view of science that will not serve you well in your quest for knowledge. Scientific knowledge is
not gathered in equal-sized grains over time, along a linear path.
The learning curve is a way of saying that knowledge follows a curve with, for example, 90% of knowledge being gained in the first 10% of the time, 99% of knowledge in 11% of the time, etc.
The fact that knowledge advancement is curved and not linear is easy enough to see in the level of accuracy with which we can model/predict natrual phenomena (though that is a little tough beyond the last 100 years, as education wasn't very formalized and the scientific process not very mature). Early in the development of an area of investigation, you quickly hone-in on the true value of a measurement and then you can spend decades digging into that last few percent. For example, here are some of the Michelson Morley experiments done in the first 50 years after it was devised. The accuracy difference between the first and one done in 1927, 46 years later was 99%. The accuracy difference between the first and one done in 1958, 77 years after the first was 99.97%. So after almost twice as much time, the deviation from the expected result only decreased by 0.97%. So that's an even steeper curve than I pointed to above: 99% of the way to the expected result in 40% of the time elapsed between the three data points.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelson–Morley_experiment#Most_famous_.22failed.22_experiment
hi russ,
here is a bit of a devil's advocate for your consideration. we have no idea where we are on the knowledge scale. obviously, you think we are further ahead than i do.
your example is about a specific "discovery". and i can buy that. but that doesn't negate my analogy of the cup at all. what it is equivalent to stating is that once we toss one grain of sand into the cup, most often another 100 grains of sand fall into the cup soon after.
but it still gives no limit to the number of grains of sand that the cup can hold. the fact that we are pretty good at a specific topic, once we are aware of said topic, lends no credence to how fast we are at learning about some other topic.
let's consider evolution. there are 2 accepted forms of it, that do not contradict one another. most people are well aware of darwinian evolution. if i recall, one of the first realizations involved birds or bugs on trees. as pollution started making the bark darker, all of a sudden the darker animals had better camouflage, and started thriving. basically the survival of the fittest. this is what is called short-scale evolution.
then there is long-scale evolution, such as the asteroids killing off the dinosaurs and many other forms of life.
the history of learning is so short when compared to evolutionary study, that i would simply caution all of us as to placing too much confidence in "what we know to be true".
i am old enough that i have been humbled enough to appreciate this. i still recall when schooling was my only source of learning. i still recall when everything i learned at school was all correct.
i most certainly still am a big advocate of science. but what i now appreciate is that science has and will continue to evolve. we had at least a mini-big-bang when copernicus, kepler and galileo re-ignited the scientific method, and got us back on the right track.
but we may have many more mini-big-bangs as well a big-bang sometime in the future millions of years, that will once again rock science as we had come to know it.
scientists do not like to admit this, because it rocks their comfort level.
unfortunately, i find many similarities between both followers of science and followers of religion - both respond very defensively if you rock their respective boats.
for me, it is simply a search for the truth - the source is not important, only the resultant truth, whatever it may be.