Do People Think It Will Take 7 Years to Get Back To Normal?

[bhobba]

See the following:



For what t is worth I think it will be less than 7 years because research is still happening at a breathtaking speed - but exactly when I have no idea.

Thanks
Bill

 

[gmax137]

well the most recent Covid thread post in General Discussion is from way back on Jan 27th, so maybe it won't be seven years

 

[OmCheeto]

If there are no glitches, my state should reach herd immunity via vaccination around the first week of July. Roughly 1/2% per day are currently receiving their second dose. As for the rest of the planet, it's anyones guess.

 

[bhobba]

If there are no glitches, my state should reach herd immunity via vaccination around the first week of July. Roughly 1/2% per day are currently receiving their second dose. As for the rest of the planet, it's anyones guess.

Lucky guss. Here in Aus there are still issues I thought was solved with the new information about efficiency of the Oxford Vaccine:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html

One dose - 76% effective. After 12 weeks you get the second dose - 82% effective. To me the road ahead here in Aus was obvious - high priority groups get the Pfizer, of which we have enough to do 10 million people. For the rest we give one dose of the Oxford as fast as possible. Then the second dose 12 weeks later. It will probably take longer than 12 weeks to give the first dose to everyone - it is estimated October, so 3 months after that for everyone to get the second dose. Once the Novavax vaccine is manufactured it can then be rolled out - exactly when depending on how it interacts when already vaccinated with the Oxford or Pfizer and how long the immunity lasts - but I suspect next year sometime. Australia, being in a very good position, deliberately has decided to wait a while and get the data from other counties vaccine use before proceeding. And I think it was wise - we now know the most effective dosing for the Oxford vaccine. I am in the priority one group of 16 million so I may or may not get the Pfizer - personally though I would prefer the Oxford because I take strong precautions - leave the moderately more effective vaccine for those that may not be as carefull as I am.

But an immunologist here has cast doubt on it that the statistician in me is forced to acknowledge is valid:
https://healthcareworkersaustralia.com/2021/02/11/backing-up-our-gains/

'Announcement on Feb 1 of increased efficacy by spacing two doses of the AZ vaccine at least 12 weeks apart generated some interest. This post hoc analysis of the primary clinical trial data should be interpreted with caution. Post hoc analyses aim to ask a question rather than answer one. Why? Because they rely on analysing a slice of the main trial data; have greater uncertainty around estimates because numbers analysed are usually smaller and are prone to bias which may translate to inadvertently finding patterns where there are none. This sub-study provided the rationale for the UK vaccine authority’s decision to delay the interval between vaccine doses to at least 12 weeks in order to vaccinate more people. However, a quarter of a year is a long time to wait in the middle of a pandemic. This sub-study actually raised more questions than answers (as post hoc analyses often do!). Why was the efficacy of a single dose of the AZ vaccine at preventing symptomatic infection higher than two standard doses at 76% versus 63% respectively? In other words, vaccine efficacy seemed to decline with a second dose. This trial update contained an additional 5,541 people from SA, UK and Brazil but overall vaccine efficacy with two standard doses remained unchanged from the first interim study published on Dec 8 which led to approvals in several countries (i.e. 63% among 14,379 people in this update vs 62% in the first analysis). Reassuringly, there were no hospitalisations after the second vaccine dose (n=0 with vaccination vs 15 with control). These results will reassure Britons that delaying the second dose by 12 weeks has some supportive evidence. However, for the rest of us, we keenly await the release of the AZ trial predominantly from the US with >32K people where close to one quarter will be over 65 years, due to report in the next month or so. In this large trial, people are receiving 2 standard doses 28 days apart- potentially the dosing schedule we will receive if approved, hence discussions on single dosing and delayed interval dosing of 12 weeks are largely academic for Australia.'

Regardless it will likely not get us out of trouble - many restrictions will still remain here in Aus. It will be less when the Novavax vaccine is rolled out, but I personally doubt even that will do it. I fear we are in for, an admittedly lessening, level of restrictions for a few years yet, until things get back to normal.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

Regardless it will likely not get us out of trouble - many restrictions will still remain here in Aus. It will be less when the Novavax vaccine is rolled out, but I personally doubt even that will do it. I fear we are in for, an admittedly lessening, level of restrictions for a few years yet, until things get back to normal.

Thanks
Bill

If we look at the current situation, there are four major factors in terms of a significant variation from "normal life" before COVID:

1) The ecomony and unemployment. The belief is we will bounce back quite quickly.

2) The health service: in the UK we now effectively have a year+ waiting list for everything. I don't see how this problem is going to be solved and we get back to the pre-COVID "normality". Especially if COVID remains a major drain on NHS resources this year. To clear the backlog could take 5-10 years.

3) Internal (UK) freedom of movement. It's not clear how long it will take until we are able to live the lives we led before COVID. I would hope to be able to travel about the UK some time this year.

4) International travel. It seems even more uncertain how long it will be before global travel is back to anything like pre-COVID. And, given the risk of further global pandemics, it's not clear that that it's ever going to be possible.

The biggest advantage that you in Australia must have over the UK is number 2) - you haven't practically destroyed your health service to deal with millions of COVID cases.

 

[OmCheeto]

Lucky guss. Here in Aus...

Kind of bizarre that no one in Australia has been vaccinated.
Although, looking at the graph.
Wait.
Seriously? Only 4 people have died in the last 17 weeks?
I can kind of understand the lack of the need to rush things.

Only Israel is doing a decent job with immunizations. Nearly 70% in under 2 months! [ref: https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/]
But I believe that's total doses, so it should probably be about half that have received both.
It will be interesting watching their numbers over the next two months.

Yesterday our state health department released the first news about infections in people who received the vaccine:

OHA is investigating breakthrough cases​

OHA today announced the discovery of four “breakthrough” cases of COVID-19. These are cases where an individual has tested positive for COVID-19 at least 14 days after completing their vaccination series.​

[ref: https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/ORDHS/bulletins/2c104de]​

I did some back of napkin maths and came up with 93% efficacy. Yay!

 

[OmCheeto]

... Only 4 people have died in the last 17 weeks? [in Australia from Covid] ,,,

I just checked, and 4 people are dying every 2 minutes here in the states.

 

[bhobba]

Seriously? Only 4 people have died in the last 17 weeks?

That is exactly why our government decided to wait. I thought it paid dividends with the discovery of the best dosing strategy for the Oxford Vaccine. But the reality of doing PROPER statistical analysis reared its ugly head. Damn.

We will keep it under control here - our tracing is first class and we go into lockdown at the drop of a hat. Our economy has taken a big hit, with more to come, but everyone is confident it does not matter how long it goes we on will eventually recover.

Thanks
Bill