Earthquake outlook for San Francisco Bay region 2014–2040

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SUMMARY

The USGS has issued a 30-year earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region, predicting a 72 percent probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater occurring before 2043. This assessment is based on recent seismic data, improved fault mapping, and a new probability model. The forecast emphasizes the importance of community preparedness to mitigate potential injuries and damage from such significant seismic events. Key faults involved include the San Andreas Fault and the Rodgers Creek Fault, which has been traced through Santa Rosa.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of seismic probability models
  • Familiarity with the San Andreas Fault system
  • Knowledge of earthquake preparedness strategies
  • Awareness of recent seismic activity in California
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the USGS 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
  • Explore earthquake preparedness measures for communities
  • Study the mapping techniques used for active fault identification
  • Investigate the implications of the Rodgers Creek Fault on local infrastructure
USEFUL FOR

Residents of the San Francisco Bay area, urban planners, emergency management professionals, and anyone involved in earthquake preparedness and risk mitigation strategies.

Astronuc
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San Francisco and Southern California is south of the Cascade region.

USGS has issued an Outlook for the region.
https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/fs20163020

Abstract
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

It relates to the San Andreas Fault and related faults down through southern California into Baja California in Mexico.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/safod_pbo.php
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/?region=California

North of San Francisco is Santa Rosa. USGS has traced the Rodgers Creek Fault through Santa Rosa
https://www.usgs.gov/news/rodgers-creek-fault-traced-through-santa-rosa
 
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Well this is comforting. Thanks, Astronuc, for the links.
 

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