brainstorm said:
. . . with the price of coal rising as demand exceeds supply.
There is more than enough coal to be burned... we'd be absolutely screwed if we used so much that demand exceeded supply.
brainstorm said:
. Oil will only continue to get more scarce and expensive. The middle east will become more strategic, only to a shrinking elite.
Yes, but how do elites stay in power? It's quite the balancing act in most of the middle-eastern states, and I really don't see that status quo lasting once the GDPs of those nations plummet. Hell, most of those regimes have enough issues as it is (see how the Saudis manage)
brainstorm said:
. I suspect water conservation will replace the need for reclamation. Flush-free toilets are already quite popular. Grey-water reclamation from showers and laundry is probably more doable, especially if greywater is recycled among different uses, like laundry water being used for cooling systems, etc
Here... and in some other developed nations. However we manage to poison a fair amount of that water through the agriculture that sustains us, and China... etc. Desalination is always going to be the public preference, and really, good luck in getting enough people to use flushless toilets to make a significant difference
brainstorm said:
. Invasion of Canada is a nationalist fantasy. Business between national governments is no longer handled by military force.
That REALLY depends on the governments, unless you'd argue that we're peacefully hashing it out (pun) with the Afghanis and Iraqis.
brainstorm said:
. Decisions are made by administrative conference and a media show is designed to legitimate historical events. This is more conspiracy theory on my part, but I really don't think that administrators of Canadian and US government are going to resort to ground-battle unless they're trying to orchestrate some soldier-extermination - God forbid.
Annexing water-rich parts of Canada is not only feasible, but entirely likely. Canada is enormous, and not massively populated. Siezing and controlling such resources would not present a challenge compared to... say... US citizens losing their minds over water rationing? That said, I don't actually believe we'd go that far unless matters had already collapsed. Of course, nationalist fantasies (Germany had a couple as I recall) do sometimes translate into military action, given the proper motivation and desperation.
brainstorm said:
. Nuclear weapons are little more than the guarantee that economy remains the battleground of conflict. Ever read George Bataille "The Accursed Share?"
Yes, but I also researched the Cuban Missile Crisis a great deal, and we came very VERY close to ending ourselves. We've come a long way, but it would be silly to assume that circumstances couldn't change. Assymetry in warfare is a strong motivator for some to utilize weapons in desperation. Riddle me this: What to do about North Korea? We are reduced to impotent negotiatoins, or a blistering and truly inhumane first strike to save Seoul. I don't see the latter happening unless something goes terribly wrong.
I don't see MAD as a backdrop for peace however, because in the end losers in ALL conflicts sometimes resort to force. "To the last I grapple with thee; from hell's heart I stab at thee; for hate's sake I spit my last breath at thee." (Capt. Ahab) That is very human, and terrifying. Logically, you shouldn't pull a gun and point it at anything you're not prepared to destroy or kill. In practice, robbers, people at home, etc... use guns as a THREAT. Does that lead to LESS gun violence, or more? Hint... more.
What would we do, or Russia, or China, faced with a sinking ship loaded armed, and aimed? The answer is: "who knows?" and that is not comforting. This of course, exludes accidents, misunderstandings, and weapons of a non-nuclear nature (biological, etc) which could be devestating. As I'm guessing you're well aware, infrastuctures and economies can be destroyed by simply overloading those infrastructures. Get enough people sick, and scared of becoming sick, and you could do terrible things. Back people into a wall, take away their guns, and what happens?... hijaacking with plastic utensils, two towers down, a hole in the pentagon, and two wars we shouldn't have entered. Imagine what similarly motivated people (remembering that M.I.C.E. is a truism for us all, not just pissed-off Arabs) could do with a well engineered virus, or bacteria?
Economics is one proxy... consider the Cold War... we had other proxies, and they didn't fight on an economic field.
brainstorm said:
What makes you think that sea food and other products won't be conserved through pricing the same as any other resource? Subsistence farming implies that somehow professional farming authorities would be excluded from any agricultural responses to distribution problems. Worst case scenario, I imagine, would be many people migrating to the outskirts of traditional farming areas to gain access to grains and crops without the need for fuel-driven transport.
1.) The rising price, and scarcity of Phosphorus, and while we might mine 'stercore' for it, the rest of the world is going to mine their areas dry.
2.) Damage to the oceans is clear, and present. Algael blooms, dead zones, overfishing and whaling. Believe it or not, it's not easy to farm most fish, and it won't matter if the whole ecosystem keels over. A lifetime of Talapia and Carp might be feasible for a while, and a lot of Textured Vegetable Protein...
3.) Again, many of your ideas are feasible for the SOME of the world, but as China and others have expressed, "**** you! You burned coal and oil to get where you are, and why should we do any differently?"
4.) Time.
brainstorm said:
If that's not feasible, professional farmers will have to run urban farms using local residents as a labor pool. The trick will be how to manage land and soil resources to ensure sustainable agriculture at the local level.
That's proactive... if matters ever become so dire that such is the only means of support, we won't have an "urban" to farm. We needed to build verticle farms in cities decades ago... now... *shrug* who knows.
brainstorm said:
In other words, fear of failure is stressful - but the trick is to supplant that fear with resolve to achieve sustainability, and to keep the faith that it's achievable. Well, I'll burst your bubble by assuring you that end-of-the-world propaganda has no other effect than to generate fiscal stimulus as people "live it up" thinking that the world is soon to end anyway. The Prince song, "Party Like It's 1999," is my favorite expression of this. I've noticed a lot of it lately with the "economic crisis." Businesses want people to spend money so they promote media that contains the suggestion that you better enjoy life while you still can. This fills up cash-registers even while it takes culture farther away from sustainability.
Agreed. People who live their lives as though it is about to end, makes sense, but only if you have a keen appreciation of your own mortality, and no desire for longevity. Otherwise, a doom that could be 50, or 500 years in the offing is not exactly something that should make anyone put a flatscreen on layaway.
brainstorm said:
Aha, so the truth come out!:) You are one of those people looking for an excuse to throw ethics to the wind and take the easy way to (someone else's) resources. Just remember that there is someone else thinking just like you ready to do the same thing to you that you are ready to do to someone else. Ethics are a frustration, but if you're lucky they also frustrate someone on the way to abuse you. Ethical actions are your best hope of being treated ethically by others. If I were you I would embrace that hope and take advantage of the opportunity to be spared as you spare others.
No... I wish I was. I have a sense of morality whether I like it or not. To me, the ultimate ethic is the so-called "Golden Rule" (not Fermi's lol). I have empathy for others, again, whether I want it or not, and I don't want to cause anyone pain, suffering, or misery. I can hardly tolerate how people treat one another, and animals, as it stands. In general, I'm treated well by peers and friends because, as you say, I treat them well. If the world ends tommorrow (lets say Tesla comes back to life and cracks the world

), is it so different from our individual lives ending? I try to treat people the way I want to be treated in return, and I fall short of that (being human, mercurial, and occasionally vicious mit mein tongue!), but not for lack of trying.
Ethics are a comfort... I just don't believe they have an objective reality. Who cares about that, when all is said and done? If this is all a dream someone is having, or a simulation, and I KNEW that, my feelings wouldn't change. I feel for others, I feel for animals, I have a very vivid imagination, and being chubby as a kid I know how even casual cruelty hurts. I've also been traveling all over the world since I was a child (and I mean all over). At age 12 I traveled to Guatamala. Interesting, since at the time there was a rumour that white foreigners were stealing children for their
organs. Mothers actually drew away from me, at 12.
I still remember dogs with fence-slat ribs, and kids with a cheap come-on to buy kitsch, and an angry "**** you" if you declined. I've seen people dying on the street from an infection that would be cleared with a course of IV antibiotics, and known I could do nothing to help them.
So, do I give up on ethics? No. I find that as silly as people who claim not to believe in a god because of an unjust world. I recognize that I'm a single person, and barring some extraordinary event in my life, I can effect those around me, and hope that effect spreads a little. I'm now a not-chubby 6'2" man, and I don't fight, even when people seem to think a big man must be a challenge. I volunteerd as a camp counseler at a local Audubon Society camp/farm/animal-rescue. I'd rather (true story) have a 6 year old on each arm, and on on each leg pretending I'm a giant to be ridden, than go to a bar and see people waste their minds, and time.
I'd much rather learn in a mileu such as this, respecting one another where appropriate, than be thrown to wolves. I appreciate the ethical acts others perform, and try my best to do the same.
I do all of this, never having believed in a god. I've never being an atheist or theist... I'm agnostic. I don't believe in a god, but I recognize that an absolute faith in a negative and unprovable is only marginally less silly than absolute faith in a positive. Faith is faith, and I'm... faithless. I'm a depressive-realist, skeptic, who hopes and acts as though the world will continue apace. What other way can you live?... hunkered in a blast shelter, hoping to enjoy a wasteland? Nah. I'm not trying to avoid the hard stuff, I'm trying to NOT resolve my cognitive dissonance. I eschew certainty in favour of phenomonology a bit of logical positivism, and a dash of hope. So, I'm not the happiest man alive, but I believe I have a more realistic view of the world, good and bad.
NOTE: To be fair, I haven't listed any good, but we're not exactly on the upbeat!
