A. Neumaier said:
Then you should say the latter whenever you want to say the former, or you will definitely earn misunderstanding. For the two are far from synonymous. The standard semantics is the one described by
wikipedia; nobody apart from you has this far too general usage you just announced. In particular, equating the two is meaningless in the present context - this thread is about deriving Born's rule from statistical mechanics, not about deriving the probabilistic interpretation of quantum mechanics.Which observable is measured in homodyme photon detection, the example mentioned before?
Moreover, your recipe (calculate the corresponding probability) only works in simple cases where you have an exactly solvable system, hence can evaluate the partition function as a sum over joint eigenstates. But the latter is just one possible way of organizing the computations (shut up and calculate - no interpretation is needed to express the trace as a sum over eigenvalues) and fails in more complex situations.
In equilibrium thermodynamics one wants to measure the total mass of each chemical component (which may be a complex molecule) and the total energy of a macroscopic interacting system. In these cases on never calculates the thermodynamic equation of state in terms of probabilities. Instead one uses mean field approximations and expansions beyond, as you know very well!
In general, a partition sum is just a piece of shut uup and calculate, as it is a mathematically defined expression valid without any interpretation.
The interpretation is about relating the final results (the equation of state)
to experiments, and this does not involve probabilities at all; it is done simply
by equating the expectation of a macroscopic variable with the measured value. Thus
this is the true interpretation rule used for macroscopic measurement. Everything else (talk about probabilities, Born's rule, etc.) doesn't enter the game anywhere (unless you want to complicate things unnecessarily, which is against one of the basic scientific principles called Ockham's razor).
In the Wikipedia article in the first few lines they give precisely the definition, I gave some postings above. I'm using the standard terminology, while you prefer to deviate from it so that we have to clarify semantics instead of discussing physics.
In homodyne detection what's measured are intensities as in any quantum-optical measurement. I refer to Scully&Zubarai, Quantum Optics. One application is to characterize an input signal (em. radiation) (annihilation operator ##\hat{a}##) using a reference signal ("local oscillator", annihilation operator ##\hat{b}##). They are sent through a beam splitter with transmittivity ##T## and reflectivity ##R##, ##T+R=1##. The states at the two output channels are then defined by (I don't put hats on top of the operators from now on):
$$c=\sqrt{T} a + \mathrm{i} \sqrt{1-T} b, \quad d=\sqrt{1-T}a + \sqrt{T} b.$$
What's measured is the intensity at channel ##c##, i.e., ##c c^{\dagger}##.
If the local oscillator is in a coherent state ##|\beta_l \rangle## you get for the expectation value
$$\langle c^{\dagger} c \rangle=T \langle a^{\dagger} a \rangle + (1-T)|\beta_l|^2 - 2 \sqrt{T(1-T)} |\beta_l| \langle X(\phi_l+\pi/2)$$
with
$$X(\phi)=\frac{1}{2} (a \exp(-\mathrm{i} \phi)+a^{\dagger} \exp(\mathrm{i} \phi).$$
All this is done within standard QT using Born's rule in the above given sense. I don't see, which point you want to make with this example. It's all standard Q(F)T.
Now you switch to partition sums, i.e., thermodynamical systems. Take as an example black-body radiation (or any other ideal gas of quanta), i.e., a radiation field in thermal equilibrium with the walls of a cavity at temperature ##T=1/\beta##.
The statistical operator is
$$\hat{\rho}=\frac{1}{Z} \exp(-\beta \hat{H}).$$
The partition sum here is
$$Z=\mathrm{Tr} \exp(-\beta \hat{H}).$$
The Hamiltonian is given by (I use a (large) quantization volume ##V## with periodic boundary conditions for simplicity)
$$\hat{H}=\sum_{\vec{n} \in \mathbb{Z}^3, h \in \{\pm 1\}} \omega(\vec{p}) \hat{a}^{\dagger}(\vec{p},h) \hat{a}(\vec{p},h), \quad \vec{p} = \frac{2 \pi}{L} \vec{n}.$$
For the following it's convenient to evaluate the somewhat generalized partition function
$$Z=\mathrm{Tr} \exp(-\sum_{\vec{n},h} \beta(\vec{n},\lambda) \omega_{\vec{n}} \hat{N}(\vec{n},h).$$
Using the Fock states leads to
$$Z=\prod_{\vec{n},h} \frac{1}{1-\exp(-\omega_{\vec{n}} \beta(\vec{n},\lambda))}.$$
The thermodynamic limit is given by making the volume ##V=L^3## large:
$$\ln Z=-\sum_{\vec{n},h} \ln [1-\exp(-\omega_{\vec{n}} \beta(\vec{n},\lambda)]=-V \sum_{h} \int_{\mathbb{R}^3} \frac{\mathrm{d}^3 \vec{p}}{(2\pi)^3} \ln [1-\exp(-\beta(\vec{p},h) |\vec{p}|].$$
The spectrum (i.e., the mean number of photons per three-momentum) is calculated by
$$\langle N(\vec{p},h) \rangle=-\frac{1}{\omega_{\vec{p}}} \frac{\delta}{\delta \beta(\vec{p},h)} \ln Z=\frac{V}{\exp(\beta |\vec{p}|)-1}.$$
It's measured with help of a spectrometer (or with the Planck satellite for the cosmic microwave background).
It's all standard QT and uses, of course, Born's rule.