Exponential Growth: Modeling growth in months vs years

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around modeling population growth using exponential functions, specifically comparing the representation of growth in terms of years versus months. Participants explore the implications of changing the time variable in the exponent of the growth function and how it affects the resulting graph.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a population growth function in terms of years and questions why a modified function representing months appears to grow slower.
  • Another participant corrects the notation from f(x) to f(t) and explains that the growth rate is based on annual compounding.
  • There is a discussion about how the exponent t should be interpreted when modeling time in months versus years, with some participants suggesting that t must be manipulated to reflect the desired time frame.
  • One participant clarifies that using t/12 in the exponent allows for modeling growth over months, while t alone represents growth over years.
  • Another participant emphasizes the importance of comparing the two functions at equal time intervals to accurately assess growth.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the mathematical principles involved in changing the time variable, but there are nuances in understanding how to apply these principles correctly. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the best approach to represent time in the growth model.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations in the discussion regarding assumptions about the growth rate and the interpretation of time in the exponent. The implications of compounding frequency and its effect on growth are not fully explored.

opus
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Say I have a function that represents the population growth of a certain country that can be written as ##f\left(x\right)=1.25\left(1.012\right)^t##, where t is in years. I can graph this function and it will look a certain way exponentially.

I've looked at a ton of examples, and they're all modeled in years. One thing that I tried is to graph the function ##f\left(x\right)=1.25\left(1.012\right)^{t/12}## to model the graph in months rather than years. I did get a different graph which doesn't increase nearly as fast as the original. Why would the t in years appear to grow faster than t in months? In this population model, wouldn't the growth be consistent throughout the whole year?

What I don't understand here (assuming this is how you would graph the function in terms of months), is when we have an exponential function to the power of t, is it always in years? If we want to model a time frame in anything other than years, do we need to manipulate t to reflect this? Or would we just say t is in months, not years, from the start?
 
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I think you mean to say "f(t) =" rather than f(x), since there is no "x" in your right hand side.

This represents a slow growth rate (1.2% per year). The way it is set up, it is like compounding annually. Putting t/12 in the exponent you will get to see how it
progresses after a number of months. Putting in ## 1.012^{t/12} ## with t = 12 will yield ## 1.012^{12/12} = 1.012##, just as ## 1.012^{t} ## would give the same answer with t = 1 (year)
 
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scottdave said:
I think you mean to say "f(t) =" rather than f(x), since there is no "x" in your right hand side.

This represents a slow growth rate (1.2% per year). The way it is set up, it is like compounding annually. Putting t/12 in the exponent you will get to see how it
progresses after a number of months. Putting in ## 1.012^{t/12} ## with t = 12 will yield ## 1.012^{12/12} = 1.012##, just as ## 1.012^{t} ## would give the same answer with t = 1 (year)
Yes I meant to say ##f\left(t\right)##. Thank you.
So when I look at the graph of the function with the exponent as ##\frac {t}{12}##, the entire graph that is shows is the growth model of a single month? And if I have the exponent simply as t, it will show the graph over an entire year?

And to follow your example with ##1.012^\frac {t}{12}##, and plugging in the value of 12 into t, that would be 12 months out of 12 months or one year, which is the same as just t. If I were to plug in, say, 9 into t rather than 12, that would show we the growth of the population over the entire course of 9 months, or over the single ninth month (in this case September)?
 
The function calculates the value after time t. If you plug in t=1 in the first one you get the value after 1 year. If you plug in t=1 in the second formula you get the value after 1 month - that will show much less growth than a full year, of course. If you plug in t=9 in the second formula you get the value after 9 months (i.e. after September).

To compare the two formulas, you should do this at equal times, e.g. after 10 years, or t=10 for the first one and t=120 (months) for the second. Clearly 120/12=10, so you get the same result in both cases.
 

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