Find Exact Confidence Intervals: Tips & Techniques

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the methods for finding exact confidence intervals (CIs) in statistical analysis. Participants explore the conditions under which exact CIs can be derived, particularly focusing on the distribution of the estimator and the implications of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). The conversation includes theoretical considerations and practical challenges in determining exact distributions for various types of data.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant questions how to find exact confidence intervals, noting that textbooks typically provide approximate methods based on the CLT.
  • Another participant asserts that exact confidence intervals are indeed available, emphasizing that their derivation depends on the distribution of the statistic, using the normal distribution as an example.
  • A participant acknowledges the reliance on known distributions for deriving exact CIs and raises concerns about scenarios where the distribution is not easily identifiable, such as with exponential distributions.
  • Another response highlights the necessity of knowing the distribution of the statistic and suggests that if the distribution cannot be determined, one might resort to large sample approximations or numerical simulations.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the availability and methods for finding exact confidence intervals. While some agree on the importance of knowing the distribution, there is no consensus on a universal approach to derive exact CIs for all types of data.

Contextual Notes

The discussion reflects limitations in the ability to derive exact distributions for various statistics, with participants acknowledging the need for specific conditions and the potential use of approximations or simulations in cases where distributions are not readily available.

logarithmic
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Does anyone know how to find exact confidence intervals? I've looked through textbooks, but they only find approximate CIs using the assumption that [tex]\frac{\hat{\theta}-\theta}{se(\hat\theta)}}\rightarrow Z.[/tex]

So given a estimator, [tex]\hat\theta[/tex] do I have to find an exact distrubution for the above expression first. And is there any nice way to do this?
 
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logarithmic said:
[tex]\frac{\hat{\theta}-\theta}{se(\hat\theta)}}\rightarrow Z.[/tex]
This result is by CLT depending on certain conditions.
Of course exact CI's are available. This depends on distribution of the statistic. Example:
x1,x2,...,xn is a sample from N(mu,sigma). Sigma known. Exact CI for mu can be easily found (available in most of textbooks of appropriate standard).
 
ssd said:
This result is by CLT depending on certain conditions.
Of course exact CI's are available. This depends on distribution of the statistic. Example:
x1,x2,...,xn is a sample from N(mu,sigma). Sigma known. Exact CI for mu can be easily found (available in most of textbooks of appropriate standard).

Yeah, I'm aware of that. Your example relies on the fact that you know exactly the distribution of the expression above, which is normal. But what if you can't find that easily, e.g. if your X_i's are from an exponential distribution.
 
logarithmic said:
Yeah, I'm aware of that. Your example relies on the fact that you know exactly the distribution of the expression above, which is normal. But what if you can't find that easily, e.g. if your X_i's are from an exponential distribution.

Your question does not appear very specific to me. Of course one needs to know the distribution of the statistic. There is no unique or universal way to find distributions of all statistics from all distributions. If the distribution cannot be enumerated then one tries large sample approximations or numerical simulation.
 

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