Finding probability of changing states

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on the derivation of the probability of changing states during adiabatic passage, specifically analyzing the expression $$ \langle \hat{U}^\dagger(t_1,t_0)\hat{U}(t_1,t_0)\rangle - \langle \hat{U}^\dagger(t_1,t_0)\rangle\langle \hat{U}(t_1,t_0)\rangle $$. The first term represents the unitarity condition, which equals 1, while the last term indicates the probability of remaining in the initial state. The difference between these two terms quantifies the total probability of transitioning to a different state.

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TheCanadian
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I am following the derivation shown in this link on adiabatic passage.

I have posted one part below:

Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 11.53.04 AM.png


I am simply wondering how this expression was derived and how it indicates the probability of being in a state that is different from the initial state? How exactly is this represented by:

$$ \langle \hat{U}^\dagger(t_1,t_0)\hat{U}(t_1,t_0)\rangle - \langle \hat{U}^\dagger(t_1,t_0)\rangle\langle \hat{U}(t_1,t_0)\rangle $$
 
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The last term in your last expression is the probability that you will remain in the initial state. The first term is 1 by unitarity. The difference of these terms is the total probability of not being in the initial state.
 
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