Forecast String Research Citing in 2005: 11 or More?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around forecasting the number of recent string theory papers that will receive over 100 citations in the year 2005. Participants analyze trends in citation counts from previous years and speculate on future outcomes, considering the implications of these trends for the state of string research.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note a significant drop in the number of highly cited string papers from 2000 to 2004, prompting questions about the future of string research.
  • Marcus predicts that the number of papers with 100+ citations will remain the same as last year, at 8.
  • Igor_S forecasts one less than last year, predicting 7 papers.
  • SelfAdjoint expresses a pessimistic view, predicting a continued slump with only 6 papers.
  • Meteor anticipates an improvement, predicting 9 papers.
  • Peter Woit (notevenwrong) predicts 5 papers and lists specific papers he believes will reach the citation threshold.
  • Spin_Network predicts a further decline, suggesting only 4 papers will be highly cited.
  • Gokul offers a vague prediction of "5-ish," indicating uncertainty.
  • Chronos raises a point about the relative citation counts between string theory and non-TOE quantum gravity papers, suggesting that string papers will likely continue to out-cite their counterparts.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of predictions with no consensus on the outcome for 2005. Multiple competing views remain regarding the future citation counts of string theory papers.

Contextual Notes

Participants discuss the implications of citation counts as indicators of research interest and influence, acknowledging that citation metrics can be influenced by the size of research communities and the number of active researchers in a field.

Who May Find This Useful

Researchers and enthusiasts in string theory, citation analysis, and the dynamics of academic publishing may find this discussion relevant.

How many recent string papers will get 100+ citations in 2005?

  • Total voters
    15
  • #31
Robert Ihnot (welcome!) added his prediction. Time to update. Now there are 12 people in the poll and our predictions are

How many recent string papers will get 100+ citations in 2005?

One better than last year, 9: Meteor
Same as last year, 8: Locrian and I
One less than last year, 7: Igor_S
Slump continues, 6: selfAdjoint, Berislav, Robert Ihnot
Yikes! 5 or less: Peter Woit, Ohwilleke, Chronos, Gokul, Spin_Network


Berislav at first estimated 7 but on clarification of the problem revised his guess to 6. The way the distribution shapes up is

9: 1
8: 2
7: 1
6: 3
5 or less: 5
 

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