Generating Stats and Probabilities

In summary, the spreadsheet stores data on the wins and losses of matches, as well as the decks and players involved. The player data is not currently important, as it is only used to generate data for the decks currently. The data indicates that decks with a high win percentage tend to be more skillfully built, and that sweeps are more common against lower-skill opponents.
  • #1
elusiveshame
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35
Hey everyone,
So lately, my friends and I have been playing a card game (magic, because we're nerds :P) and we've been trying to rank our decks (as well as our probabilities to win a game, a match, etc). I've begun working on a spreadsheet with some initial data points (about 30 in total). The data logged is the wins and losses per match, the decks, and the players. The players aren't important at this point, since it's just generating data for the decks currently.

Wins are counted as 1, Losses are -1, and if game 3 isn't play, a 0 (indicates a sweep/perfect match)

So far the data I've been able to generate are the following (I apologize for poorly formatted formulas):
* Total Match Wins: if the value of each row is > 0
* Total Match Losses: if the value of each row is < 0
* Total Matches (sum of Wins and Losses, could also use row count)
* # of times a deck has been swept
* % of being swept (0 wins per match): Swept# / Total Matches
* # of sweeps your deck has
* % of getting a sweep: Sweeps/Total Matches
* Match Win %: Wins/Total Matches
* Rating: (sum of match data) / ((total matches) * 2)

Other data is somewhat redundant, but for different purposes - single matches. So I have # of hands played, # of hands won, # of hands lost, and percentages based on those.

I have a few questions:
1.) Is there any more data I can extract from these few data points?
2.) Is % the same as probability?
3.) Am I on the right track for generating a good set of stats?

Thanks!
 
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  • #2
I would use something more like the ELO or the TrueSkill approach. Basically you assume that there is an underlying skill and more skillfully built decks win more often than less skillfully built ones. You start out with all decks having the same skill, but a large uncertainty. Each win increases the skill and each loss decreases it. A win against a low skill opponent has little impact but a win against a high ranked opponent has a large impact.
 
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Likes elusiveshame
  • #3
I’ll have to look those up, but you are right. Thanks for that insight!
 
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What is the purpose of generating stats and probabilities?

The purpose of generating stats and probabilities is to analyze and interpret data in order to make informed decisions or predictions. This can be useful in various fields such as economics, sports, and research.

What are some common methods used in generating stats and probabilities?

Some common methods used in generating stats and probabilities include hypothesis testing, regression analysis, and Bayesian statistics. These methods involve mathematical calculations and statistical models to analyze data and calculate probabilities.

How accurate are the results from generating stats and probabilities?

The accuracy of results from generating stats and probabilities depends on the quality of data and the methods used. In general, the more data that is used and the more reliable the methods, the more accurate the results will be.

How can generating stats and probabilities be used in decision making?

Generating stats and probabilities can be used in decision making by providing insights and predictions based on data. For example, a company can use statistical analysis to forecast sales and make informed decisions about production and marketing strategies.

What are some limitations of generating stats and probabilities?

Some limitations of generating stats and probabilities include the potential for biased or incomplete data, the complexity of statistical methods, and the difficulty in predicting rare events. It is important to consider these limitations and use caution when interpreting results.

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