Generating Stats and Probabilities

  • #1
elusiveshame
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Hey everyone,
So lately, my friends and I have been playing a card game (magic, because we're nerds :P) and we've been trying to rank our decks (as well as our probabilities to win a game, a match, etc). I've begun working on a spreadsheet with some initial data points (about 30 in total). The data logged is the wins and losses per match, the decks, and the players. The players aren't important at this point, since it's just generating data for the decks currently.

Wins are counted as 1, Losses are -1, and if game 3 isn't play, a 0 (indicates a sweep/perfect match)

So far the data I've been able to generate are the following (I apologize for poorly formatted formulas):
* Total Match Wins: if the value of each row is > 0
* Total Match Losses: if the value of each row is < 0
* Total Matches (sum of Wins and Losses, could also use row count)
* # of times a deck has been swept
* % of being swept (0 wins per match): Swept# / Total Matches
* # of sweeps your deck has
* % of getting a sweep: Sweeps/Total Matches
* Match Win %: Wins/Total Matches
* Rating: (sum of match data) / ((total matches) * 2)

Other data is somewhat redundant, but for different purposes - single matches. So I have # of hands played, # of hands won, # of hands lost, and percentages based on those.

I have a few questions:
1.) Is there any more data I can extract from these few data points?
2.) Is % the same as probability?
3.) Am I on the right track for generating a good set of stats?

Thanks!
 
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  • #2
I would use something more like the ELO or the TrueSkill approach. Basically you assume that there is an underlying skill and more skillfully built decks win more often than less skillfully built ones. You start out with all decks having the same skill, but a large uncertainty. Each win increases the skill and each loss decreases it. A win against a low skill opponent has little impact but a win against a high ranked opponent has a large impact.
 
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  • #3
I’ll have to look those up, but you are right. Thanks for that insight!
 
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