Battle Projections: Predicting Probabilities in Games

In summary, the conversation discusses the concept of "Battle Projections" in video games and how it relates to probability and game theory. The participants also mention the use of software and simulations in predicting outcomes in various scenarios. Possible areas of study include probability theory, decision theory, and game theory, with the added challenge of accounting for personal risk aversion and unknown variables. The book "Math Bytes" by Tim Chartier is also suggested as a resource for learning more about this topic.
  • #1
Kaura
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This is a rather odd topic but recently when playing games, mostly first person shooters, I have formed a curiosity about "Battle Projections" or the ability to predict probabilities based on in game variables.

For example, if you were spectating a round of no respawn four versus four death match, would it be possible to use compiled data such as each player's kills and deaths and the remaining alive players to calculate the probability of each team winning?

I know they do this in certain sports, so I suppose my main question is how to go about this and what exactly I should study to learn more about it.
 
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  • #2
Kaura said:
I know they do this in certain sports, so I suppose my main question is how to go about this and what exactly I should study to learn more about it.
The obvious answer is stochastic aka probability theory and the hardest part might be to find out the given settings by the game itself, i.e. the phase space in which your calculations will take place. But there is more to it which points to decision and game theory: the personal risk aversion functions of the participants. Two players in exactly the same situation might still get to a different result evaluating this situation and therefore will chose different strategies. Overall I think there is a vast of unknown variables which you will have to make assumptions on before you could even start to make predictions, resp. projections and calculations.
 
  • #3
Cool I will look into it.
 
  • #4
There was a TV show called Deadliest Warrior which used software to predict the outcome of a match between two historical warriors like Spartan vs Ninja, Shaolin Monk vs Moari Warrior.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadliest_Warrior

and more about the sim used:

http://www.martialdevelopment.com/blog/deadliest-warrior-combat-simulator/

Many people agreed it was primarily for entertainment and not very realistic but perhaps you can learn something from it.

A Pipeworks sim too:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadliest_Warrior:_The_Game
 
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  • #5
I just stumbled upon this question, although it is not new. You may find the book Math Bytes by Tim Chartier, interesting. One chapter discusses math techniques which can be used to evaluate strengths of competitors.
 
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Related to Battle Projections: Predicting Probabilities in Games

1. What is the purpose of battle projections in games?

Battle projections use mathematical models and data analysis to predict the likelihood of certain outcomes in a game. This information can be used by players and coaches to make strategic decisions and increase their chances of winning.

2. How accurate are battle projections?

The accuracy of battle projections can vary depending on the complexity of the game and the quality of the data used. However, with the advancement of technology and data analysis techniques, battle projections have become increasingly accurate in recent years.

3. What factors are considered in battle projections?

Battle projections take into account a variety of factors, such as player statistics, team performance, home field advantage, weather conditions, and opponent strengths and weaknesses. These factors are used to create a mathematical model that predicts the probability of different outcomes in a game.

4. Can battle projections be used for all types of games?

Battle projections can be used for a wide range of games, including sports, board games, and video games. However, the accuracy and applicability of the projections may vary depending on the complexity of the game and the availability of relevant data.

5. How can battle projections be beneficial for a team or player?

Battle projections provide valuable insights and information that can help teams and players make strategic decisions. By knowing the likelihood of certain outcomes, teams can adjust their tactics and increase their chances of winning. Additionally, battle projections can also help with scouting and recruitment by identifying key strengths and weaknesses of opponents.

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