Someone posed this Stat / Probablity problem to me: Two teams A vs B play a tournament of seven games against each other. First team to won 4 games wins the tournament. The games are split over each team's home stadium as A A B B B A A. Historically the home team wins a game 55% of the time. What's the probability that team A wins the tournament? Now, I simulated this in R as a series of events drawn from three binomial distributions. I get a 0.52 win probability for team A. i.e. A small advantage remains for the team that starts the tourney since it gets 4 home games vs three for the other team. Just wanted to double check this answer if it is amenable to an analytic solution. I tried increasing the number of simulations and the answer of 0.52 is fairly stable but not sure whether I've converged onto the asymptotically right answer or not.