German air raids on Moscow in World War II

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on a poignant anecdote shared by Peter L. Bernstein in "Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk," illustrating the unpredictability of risk during the German air raids on Moscow in World War II. The story features a Soviet professor who, despite his previous confidence in statistical safety, is shaken by the randomness of danger when an elephant is hit amidst a population of seven million. This narrative serves as a metaphor for understanding risk and probability in chaotic situations.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic statistical concepts and probability theory
  • Familiarity with historical context of World War II, particularly the German air raids on Moscow
  • Knowledge of risk assessment and management principles
  • Awareness of the significance of anecdotes in illustrating complex ideas
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the impact of German air raids on Moscow's civilian population during World War II
  • Study the principles of risk assessment in chaotic environments
  • Explore the use of anecdotes in statistical literature, particularly in "Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk"
  • Investigate the psychological effects of war on civilian populations and their perception of risk
USEFUL FOR

Historians, statisticians, risk analysts, and anyone interested in the psychological aspects of risk perception during wartime scenarios.

mouseonmoon
One winter night during one of the many German air raids on Moscow in World War II, a distinguised Soviet professor of statistics showed up in his local air-raid shelter. He had never appeared there before. "There are seven million people in Moscow," he used to say. "Why should I expect them to hit me?" His friends were astonished to see him and asked what had happened to change his mind.
"Look," he explained, "there are seven million people in Moscow and one elephant. Last night they got the elephant."
--Peter L. Bernstein in "Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk"
 
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Sorry for the silly question but...
what did you mean by the story?!
 

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