Is it just me, or those studies show results that are extremely blown out of proportion?
What eactly do you mean "blown out of proportion"?
The study sais that up to 50% of all species could be driven to extinction in the next 30-40 years due to global warming.
50% of all species dying, due to a difference of a few degrees is to me "blown out of proportions".
The Permian Mass Extinction saw as much as 90% of marine species go extinct. From that point of view, a 50% extinction is possible from a temperature rise. Whether it will happen or not is speculation.
Interestingly, there are papers that posit part of the Permian Mass Extinction to extremely hot temperatures on earth. End of the Permian is the hottest period on record after the start of multicellular life forms.
Anyway, the folks talking about mass extinction from rising temperatures are getting some ammunition from the Permian data. IMO.
I'm staying out of the climatological debate and presenting what the fossil record shows. I can't say what will or will not happen in the next 50 years.
I don't think it's unrealistic, but I think the data may be merging other factors into the equation for the total extinction rate. There has been a fairly steady rise in extinction usually blamed on "human interference" which probably accounts for a lot of the extinction that would be included in the global warming caused extinction.
But even things such as species diversity are showing some drastic changes with the small increases in annual temperature. Small changes in diversity can destroy the stability of many ecosystems and can lead to a lot of problems.
Good news SF, keep healthy, and if you are not too old, you will know the answer to your question in ~ 44 years. I wonder what 50% of species will go first, and if this action will open new niches for rapid evolution to fill the void ? Or, do we just end with 50% less species. An interesting natural experiment about to unfold that many that read PF will be able to observe. Should we start a pet list of those species we hope will be first to go--I find little use for the mosquito species, especially those that cause human disease.
If the anthropocentric basis for global warming is true then all hail the mosquitos and the diseases they spread!:tongue:
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