- #36
AhmedEzz
So what's your point exactly? The Earth was warmer and was more biodiverse than today...so what, we are talking about the effects of GW on humans, how it will affect countries, etc...
I don't know what blogs you are referring to. But to make it clear, let's just say I, personally, am calling him a crackpot and I'll be happy to defend that assertion in a different thread, if required.Evo said:First, being called a crackpot by bloggers on global warming fear mongering blogs is meaningless.
I don't think anyone was disputing that.Second, the information on the geologic time frames is absolutely correct.
As long as we stick to reputable sources, I have no problems. Incidentally, the first quotation is missing a link to the actual article.Oh good grief, why didn't you say that earlier, I've been looking for accessible articles showing that what he posted was accurate. :grumpy: I've provided several of those.
Ok, I will shift gears, but my cooking show is about to begin. Here's one.
Species, Speciation and the Environment
Niles Eldredge
Paleontologist Dr. Niles Eldredge, is the Curator-in-Chief of the permanent exhibition “Hall of Biodiversity” at the American Museum of Natural History and adjunct professor at the City University of New York. He has devoted his career to examining evolutionary theory through the fossil record, publishing his views in more than 160 scientific articles, reviews, and books. Life in the Balance: Humanity and the Biodiversity Crisis is his most recent book.
http://www.gc.cuny.edu/directories/faculty/E.htm
Science & Nature Species Explosion
What happens when you mix evolution with climate change?
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/species.html
I have not argued against the claim itself - only against the faulty argument that conducive temperatures in the past imply conducive temperatures today. That and the use of poor sources - I'm sure Evo didn't realize that Hieb is a dubious source.D H said:So ignore him. Are the other articles Evo cited by crackpots?
But that alone is hardly proof that continued warming today will cause life to flourish, which is why reliable sources and good citations are important.Geologists, geographers, meteorologists? Evo is not saying that global warming is "good". She is merely citing what should be common knowledge: That the Earth has been a lot warmer than it is now and that life flourished when the Earth was warmer.
Why is he a crackpot concerning what I posted about climate in the Carboniferous Age? I made it clear when I posted it that that was all I was posting it for. To try to throw doubt on it when it is indeed correct? He's not a "dubious" source for that information, you yourself have agreed it's correct. So what's up with that?Gokul43201 said:I don't know what blogs you are referring to. But to make it clear, let's just say I, personally, am calling him a crackpot and I'll be happy to defend that assertion in a different thread, if required.
I have not "agreed it's correct". I only said that I had no intention of disputing the geological record presented there. I am neither qualified to dispute it personally, nor am I sufficiently well read to know the details. The one figure I looked at is drawn from sources that I find reputable and so I accept it's veracity, but there's a whole bunch of other stuff, including the conclusions, that is not sufficiently cited or is his personal judgement.Evo said:Why is he a crackpot concerning what I posted about climate in the Carboniferous Age? I made it clear when I posted it that that was all I was posting it for. To try to throw doubt on it when it is indeed correct? He's not a "dubious" source for that information, you yourself have agreed it's correct.
What's up is that the author of that site is a clearly biased and highly dubious source, so anything he writes is unreliable, except for those specific things that are directly drawn from more reliable sources.So what's up with that?
I disagree with this, and I imagine, so would Andre. Over the last 30 years, there is an unarguable increase in the global anomaly, even if you look at only the least convincing dataset: the satellite data for lower tropospheric temperatures (MSU2LT).vanesch said:When are people going to take climate science back to science and out of the political propaganda sphere ?We have observational data which suggests that the CO2 rise in the atmosphere correlates with human CO2 exhaust. I don't think there's much dispute about that.
We have much less sure observational data that suggests that global temperatures have *slightly* been rising. Recently however (satellite data on ocean temperatures) this is not clear at all.
I'm pretty sure the last IPCC reports made falsifiable predictions saying (approximately): if we maintain a Z(t) CO2 emission rate (t=time), we will see an increase in temperature over the next X years at a rate of about Y degrees per decade*. I think the early predictions for the scenarios of constant/decreased CO2 emissions may be somewhat off because back then, there was a somewhat poorer quantization of the amplitude of multi-decadal oscillations compared to what has come from papers in the last 1-2 years.We have the *hypothesis* that CO2 increase is going to act as a greenhouse gas. Simple radiation transport models ("all else equal") show us that a doubling of the CO2 (about beginning 2100) will give rise to a global increase in temperature of about 1 degree.
And then we have a LOT OF MODELS that add feedback to this radiation transport mechanism: increasing temperatures will do "other things" (so no more "all else equal"), like changed land usage (different vegetation, ice cover...), changed atmospheric content (water vapor, clouds,...), changing ocean currents, changing ocean composition, changing atmospheric composition and profiles, etc... and depending on the guesses one puts in these models, one can obtain positive feedback which then predicts temperature increases for a doubling of CO2 of up to 6 degrees.
However, these models don't work as of now yet in a scientific way, in that they make falsifiable predictions, those predictions are then observed, and so on.
Could you provide a reference? I hope you are not comparing the measured deep sea temperature decrease in sub-Arctic waters with the predicted surface water temperature increase.Indeed, recently they made different predictions of the ocean temperatures from those observed.
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htmFor the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emissions scenarios in the TAR mainly because the broader range of models now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. For the A2 scenario, for example, the climate-carbon cycle feedback increases the corresponding global average warming at 2100 by more than 1°C. Carbon feedbacks are discussed in Topic 2.3. {WGI 7.3, 10.5, SPM}
Integral said:Since life on Earth is very robust I have no doubts that life will thrive under the potential new conditions, the question is can our civilization survive the changes? That is what we are gambling with the survival of our civilization, not life. How robust is our civilization? I do not think anyone can answer that question with anything other then idle speculation. I really seems that there is a LOT at stake, do we really want to continue on our current path when there exists a reasonable possibility as predicted that we are treading a dangerous path? Is it fear mongering to want changes to at least reduce our impact on the planet?
Andre said:There is a tiny technical problem though; where is that global warming?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=239131
vanesch said:I fully agree with you that given the state of knowledge of today, knowing that severe AGW is a possibility, one should err on the prudent side. But you make a very valid point: what is at stake is potentially our civilization and our way of life, NOT the biosphere, not "humanity", and not some or other biodiversity question.
So any "remedy" that would put "our way of life" more at stake than the potential danger that threatens it, would be a remedy worse than the illness. Fear is always a bad adviser. The exercise is to optimize somehow the quality of life now and in the relatively near future. We shouldn't take any drastic measures "to save the planet" that would endanger our way of life much more - but we should also not be reckless and not take into account the genuine risk for the near future. But all this should be thought over, and not decided in a kind of panic mood - which is the danger of the fear mongering.
Should we put work in switching away from fossil fuels ? Yes, and not only for the sake of "saving the planet". But should we do it in a drastic way, that puts whole populations in peril ? No, certainly not, that would be exactly the "remedy" that's worse than the "illness".
Gokul43201 said:I disagree with this, and I imagine, so would Andre. Over the last 30 years, there is an unarguable increase in the global anomaly, even if you look at only the least convincing dataset: the satellite data for lower tropospheric temperatures (MSU2LT).
I refer you to Andre's post with the linear regression fits for the different datasets: https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1677418&postcount=42
The satellite data shows an increase of about 1.4K/century from 1979 to 2007. This is a greater slope than for any other dataset over the last 100 years, which give numbers like 0.5K/century. The other datasets have slopes greater than 1.5K/century for the last 30 years.
Period:...1979-2007...1998-2007
GHCN:...0.193...0.199
NOAA:...0.170...0.127
HADCRUT:..0.170...0.041
MSU2LT...0.142...0.057
I'm pretty sure the last IPCC reports made falsifiable predictions saying (approximately): if we maintain a Z(t) CO2 emission rate (t=time), we will see an increase in temperature over the next X years at a rate of about Y degrees per decade*. I think the early predictions for the scenarios of constant/decreased CO2 emissions may be somewhat off because back then, there was a somewhat poorer quantization of the amplitude of multi-decadal oscillations compared to what has come from papers in the last 1-2 years.
Could you provide a reference? I hope you are not comparing the measured deep sea temperature decrease in sub-Arctic waters with the predicted surface water temperature increase.
I disagree. While freeing ourselves from the oil addiction may reduce emissions somewhat, I doubt it does so to the extent some claim we need to reduce emissions. We still have a lot of coal, after all. If we switch the majority of the vehicles on the road from gasoline-powered internal combustion vehicles to coal-powered battery driven vehicles, we will have taken a big step to reducing our oil dependence but a only small step to reducing our carbon footprint.Integral said:What difference does it make? The measures we need to take to control greenhouse gases are the same ones we need to take to free ourselves from the oil addiction.
Over the last 5 years, we have been about 0.5C warmer than the temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period[1,2] according to most published sources. Even the most skeptical estimates (those which eliminate tree-ring data) say that we now at similar temperatures to the MWP[3]. Before that, the last time we had temperatures that were comparable or slightly higher than today's temperatures, was about 125,000 years ago[4]. The last time that the Earth was significantly warmer was most likely several million years ago[5].Integral said:Sure in the past the Earth was much warmer, What was the human population then? What was the state of civilization then?
Actually, you can't really say that. When you look at the 10-year data, the error bars in the slopes (which are not included in that table) become larger than the change in the slope, so the 10-year slopes are mostly meaningless (i.e., 9-year and 11-year slopes are different from the 10-year slopes by over 50%). This is why I compared the 30-year trend with the 100-year trend (errors bars are smaller and a comparison becomes meaningful).vanesch said:Ok, now let's take the numbers from that post:
If I understand well, the numbers are degrees per decade for 4 different estimators of global temperature. Now, what do we see ? 3 out of 4 of them have a LOWER value of the set 1998-2007 than for the set 1979-2007, which means that the slope is DECREASING.
Again, I must say I don't think so. The two biggest features observed in global temperatures over the last 130 years are an upward trend that correlates well with CO2 levels and a multi-decadal (50-70 year) oscillation (origin not well-understood by me). If temperature increases from GHG forcings (+some other things) is sufficiently positive and nearly linear in time, then the slope during an upswing of the multi-decadal oscillation will be greater than that during a downswing. Since we are currently starting on a downswing, it would be reasonable to see a decrease in the overall slope for the period 2000-2020 compared to the period 1980-2000. This is the same reason that the slope during the 1940-1975 period was much smaller than that during the 1915-1940 period.vanesch said:If I understand well, the numbers are degrees per decade for 4 different estimators of global temperature. Now, what do we see ? 3 out of 4 of them have a LOWER value of the set 1998-2007 than for the set 1979-2007, which means that the slope is DECREASING. If the CO2+feedback+whatever panic scheme were right, then the slope should be INCREASING, as in the mean time, the CO2 level has been increasing, and all the positive feedback had more time to act.
Gokul43201 said:Actually, you can't really say that. When you look at the 10-year data, the error bars in the slopes (which are not included in that table) become larger than the change in the slope, so the 10-year slopes are mostly meaningless (i.e., 9-year and 11-year slopes are different from the 10-year slopes by over 50%).
I don't think I've ever said that we know anything with a great certainty right now. Even by my earlier post on the IPCC prediction, we must wait at least about 20-years for them to gain scientific credibility. Given that multi-decadal oscillations are a big factor, I would typically (for a purely scientific purpose) like to wait for at least a few more oscillations to match predictions, and that would mean waiting a couple centuries.vanesch said:I know. But it works in 2 ways: if we can't say anything over less than 30 years, then we should wait 30 years before looking at predictions, and not start shouting right now that the data prove (or disprove) this or that model, and hence that the world is FOR SURE facing this or that tragedy or on the other hand, that this or that prediction was wrong and hence that all that is BS. As the "experiment" takes at least 30 years, you cannot say ANYTHING right now with any affirmative certainty, that was my point.
Gokul43201 said:Given that multi-decadal oscillations are a big factor, I would typically (for a purely scientific purpose) like to wait for at least a few more oscillations to match predictions, and that would mean waiting a couple centuries.
Gokul43201 said:I don't think I've ever said that we know anything with a great certainty right now. Even by my earlier post on the IPCC prediction, we must wait at least about 20-years for them to gain scientific credibility. Given that multi-decadal oscillations are a big factor, I would typically (for a purely scientific purpose) like to wait for at least a few more oscillations to match predictions, and that would mean waiting a couple centuries.
I will be most glad to wait, with you, for the data to match the calculations. Maybe on some warm January evening, when we're old men, we can share a pitcher of beer, as we look at the numbers together in a seaside Parisian cafe, the warm waters of the English Channel swirling by our feet. We could even make jokes about the giant ants living on the Eiffel Tower.
They actually are starting to change now...though it may be a while before we see anything drastic.Evo said:Absolutely. I've noticed that even though the price of gas has doubled over the last year, there are as many cars on the road as there has ever been. The majority of people aren't changing their habits.
Americans drove 22 billion fewer miles from November through April than during the same period in 2006-07, the biggest such drop since the Iranian revolution led to gasoline supply shortages in 1979-80.
The numbers released Wednesday may reflect more than a temporary attitude change in consumers toward high gas prices, Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said. Previously, she said, "people might change their pattern for a short period of time, but it almost always bounced back very quickly. We're not seeing that now."
Integral said:What difference does it make? The measures we need to take to control greenhouse gases are the same ones we need to take to free ourselves from the oil addiction. Your denial is counter productive; it serves no good purpose other then to put our civilization at risk. Let us take prudent measures to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels NOW.
I really cannot see the point of your arguments.