Aimless said:
I fail to see how my point was refuted at the beginning of the thread. In the gravitational collapse scenario, assuming the black hole is permanent, then yes, of course an event horizon forms, and forms before the singularity.
No, even for an impermanent black hole formed from collapse that decays, the event horizon (semiclassically defined) precedes the singularity.
Aimless said:
My claim is the following: given the following two assumptions, 1), that all black holes eventually evaporate due to Hawking radiation, and 2), based on whatever unknown quantum gravity effects might exist, there are no spacetime singularities and there is some resolution to the information paradox, then event horizons don't exist.
This is true only if you insist on a strictly classical definition of event horizon while using quantum definitions elsewhere. Note that the original semiclassical derivation of Hawking radiatio was
based on the existence of a horizon. Thus Hawking radiation without a semiclassical horizon is nonsense. The consensus here is that you have something that macroscopically behaves like a horizon but microscopically does not.
Aimless said:
As an example, consider a spacetime containing a smooth spherically symmetric time varying matter density such that at early times there are no horizons, at intermediate times a collapse occurs such that a trapped region forms, and at late times (for whatever reason) the collapse reverses and the trapped region disappears. What happens to
Without major violation of GR, this scenario is impossible. It is impossible with any of QG corrections of GR that I am familiar with. That is, the reversal of collapse after a macroscopic horizon forms is impossible.
Aimless said:
It must either exit to the untrapped region (in which case the trapping surface isn't an event horizon) or it must be destroyed. If Hawking radiation is completely thermal then that suggests that information from those events is destroyed, but that view seems to be falling out of favor. If so, if the information persists in some way, then I do not see how it is possible to call the surface bounding the trapped region an event horizon.
My original point was that quantum effects seem to imply that event horizons are not impermeable; thus, I feel that apparent horizons are more physically relevant and interesting. I stated this poorly (and incorrectly) above, and you were right to call me on it; my apologies.
I mostly agree with this last paragraph with some caveats. Hawking radiation for a stellar black hole (let along a supermassive black hole) is at a lower temperature than CMB radiation. Thus all black holes in the current universe are growing, not shrinking (even if there is no matter at all nearby). The time frame in which black holes decay is well after the heat death of all stars.
Note: you have several times now used language like:
"they will see an infalling object remain just above their own apparent horizon while the black hole evaporates, and the object will appear to cross the horizon at the exact moment the horizon disappears"
This is what is refuted in this thread. For a collapsing supercluster observed from afar, matter is seen in the center of the forming black region, until the whole region goes black. The idea that the matter is seen only outside what appears to be the horizon is
false for a collapse. It is true only for an eternal black hole, which is a pretty absurd concept.