Help with negative binomial distributions

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating probabilities for a negative binomial random variable X with a success probability p = 0.6. The specific queries involve finding P(X ≥ 3) for r = 2 and r = 4, with the expected answers being 0.1792 and 0.45568, respectively. The confusion arises from miscalculating P(X ≤ 2) and misunderstanding the properties of the negative binomial distribution, particularly that P(X ≥ r) is always 1 when r exceeds the number of trials. The correct approach involves recognizing that for r = 2, P(X ≥ 3) simplifies to 1 - P(X ≤ 2).

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  • Understanding of negative binomial distributions
  • Familiarity with Bernoulli trials
  • Knowledge of probability calculations, specifically P(X ≤ k) and P(X ≥ k)
  • Basic statistical concepts related to random variables
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  • Study the properties of negative binomial distributions in detail
  • Learn how to compute probabilities using the negative binomial probability mass function
  • Explore examples of Bernoulli trials and their applications in real-world scenarios
  • Investigate common pitfalls in probability calculations and how to avoid them
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Students studying probability theory, statisticians, and anyone seeking to deepen their understanding of negative binomial distributions and their applications in statistical analysis.

mintsharpie
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One of the questions in my probability homework reads:

X denotes a negative binomial random variable, with p = 0.6 Find P(X ≥ 3) for a) r = 2 and b) r = 4.

According to my teacher, the answers are 0.1792 and 0.45568, respectively, but I can't for the life of me figure out how he got them. I tried finding P(X ≥ 3) by turning it into 1 - P(X ≤ 2) and then calculating p(2), p(1), and p(0), but I kept getting 0 for my answer, which obviously isn't correct.

Can someone please help me solve this problem, or explain to me how I would go about solving it? I'm really confused.

Thanks.
 
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mintsharpie said:
One of the questions in my probability homework reads:

X denotes a negative binomial random variable, with p = 0.6 Find P(X ≥ 3) for a) r = 2 and b) r = 4.

According to my teacher, the answers are 0.1792 and 0.45568, respectively, but I can't for the life of me figure out how he got them. I tried finding P(X ≥ 3) by turning it into 1 - P(X ≤ 2) and then calculating p(2), p(1), and p(0), but I kept getting 0 for my answer, which obviously isn't correct.

Can someone please help me solve this problem, or explain to me how I would go about solving it? I'm really confused.

Thanks.

Remember that the negative binomial models the number of Bernoulli trials up to and including the rth success. Therefore p(x) > 0 only for x \ge r.

If r = 2, then p(0) and p(1) are obviously zero, so your first calculation should just be 1 - p(2), which isn't zero and isn't his answer either. And if r = 4, obviously P(X ≥ 3) = 1 since you can't have 4 successes in less than three trials. Time to ask your teacher what's going on.
 

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