HMM (Hidden Markov Matrix) Evaluation

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In summary, the conversation discusses the three methods for HMM evaluation (forward, backward, and forward-backward algorithms) and how they may not always give the same result. The speaker shares their own implementation and questions if the difference in probabilities is due to a precision issue or a problem with their coding. They also mention a helpful PDF from a lecture at the University at Buffalo.
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jiapei100
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Hi, all:

about HMM Evaluation question:

There are 3 methods to carry out HMM evaluation.
1) forward algorithm
2) backward algorithm
3) forward-backward algorithm

Sometimes, forward algorithm and backward algorithm may not give out the same result.
Can anybody (mathematician) help to explain it clearly?

I designed my data as: 2 hidden states, 3 observations, and the sequence if of length 4

1) initial state probability of state 1 and 2: 0.6, 0.4 sequentially

2) transition probability :
from state 1 to state 1: 0.7
from state 1 to state 2: 0.3
from state 2 to state 1: 0.4
from state 2 to state 2: 0.6

3) observation probability:
from state 1 to observation 1: 0.1
from state 1 to observation 2: 0.4
from state 1 to observation 3: 0.5
from state 2 to observation 1: 0.6
from state 2 to observation 2: 0.3
from state 2 to observation 3: 0.1

4) the observation sequence is known as: 0->1->2->
that is
observation 1 to observation 2 to observation 3 to observation 1

According to my implementation, forward algorithm got the probability as: 0.0090887999999999993
while backward algorithm got the probability as: 0.0090888000000000010

I'm wondering if this is the precision problem during the computation?
Or there are some other problems hidden in my wrong coding?
(Sorry that I didn't afford my coding at this moment,
I'm guessing Julius has its own HMM to have the above simple example computed)

The difference between two probabilities using my HMM looks like a precision issue,
but I'm just not certain about this.

Can anybody give a hand to confirm this?

Cheers
JIA
 
Mathematics news on Phys.org

1. What is HMM evaluation?

HMM (Hidden Markov Model) evaluation is a statistical method used to determine the probability of a sequence of observations occurring within a given model. It is commonly used in areas such as speech recognition, bioinformatics, and natural language processing.

2. How is HMM evaluation performed?

HMM evaluation involves calculating the likelihood of a sequence of observations based on a given HMM model. This is done using the forward algorithm, which calculates the probability of being in a particular state at each time step, and then combining these probabilities to determine the overall probability of the sequence.

3. What is the purpose of HMM evaluation?

The purpose of HMM evaluation is to determine the most likely sequence of hidden states that could have produced a given sequence of observations. This is useful in predicting future observations or in identifying patterns in data.

4. What are the limitations of HMM evaluation?

One limitation of HMM evaluation is that it assumes the observed data is generated from a single, fixed model. This may not always be the case in real-world scenarios, leading to inaccurate results. Additionally, HMMs are not suitable for modeling complex relationships between variables.

5. How can HMM evaluation be improved?

One way to improve HMM evaluation is by using more advanced algorithms, such as the Viterbi algorithm, which takes into account the most likely sequence of hidden states rather than just the overall probability. Additionally, using a combination of multiple models and incorporating external data can also improve the accuracy of HMM evaluation.

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