How Likely Are Unlikely Events?

  • Context: Undergrad 
  • Thread starter Thread starter skydivephil
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of unlikely events, particularly in the context of probability and card drawing. Participants explore the implications of mathematical probabilities and the nature of events deemed unlikely, questioning whether such events can occur despite their low probabilities.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Technical explanation, Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a mathematical argument regarding the probabilities of drawing specific sequences of cards from a deck, illustrating how unlikely events can occur frequently in practice.
  • Another participant acknowledges the math but suggests that the argument may lack coherence in its implications.
  • A third participant claims that the initial argument successfully challenges the idea that unlikely events cannot happen.
  • A fourth participant introduces a philosophical perspective, stating that if one could predict outcomes with complete accuracy, the distinction between likely and unlikely events would vanish, leaving only certain and impossible outcomes.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the cogency of the initial argument regarding unlikely events. While some agree with the mathematical reasoning, others question its implications and coherence, indicating that the discussion remains unresolved.

Contextual Notes

The discussion involves assumptions about the nature of probability and the interpretation of unlikely events, which may not be universally agreed upon. The implications of predicting outcomes with certainty are also not fully explored.

skydivephil
Messages
470
Reaction score
9
I was thinking about unlikely evenst and conclude they must happen all the time. Imagine I draw a card from a deck, the odds for a particular card to come out= 1/52. Now I replace, shuffle and draw another card, the odds of the sequence of two card are =1/52*1/52 so and we can keep multiplying this by 1/52 for each card if we repeat the process:
2 card = 1/2704
3 cards =140,068
4 cards = 7,311,616
5 cards 380,204,032
6 cards =19.77 billion to one.
7 cards = 1.028 trillion to one.

Now presumably casinos are dealing thousands of cards down every day, (Maybe millions?) and so the odds of any particular sequence of cards being dealt is utterly astronimical. So one cannot sy an event cannot happen because its unlikely, it has to be more unliekly than any other event. Anyone disagree with this maths?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
I don't disagree with the math, perhaps your argument isn't cogent though.
 
If your aim was to disprove the notion that unlikely events can't happen, you've succeeded.
 
If you could predict the future with 100% accuracy, there wouldn't be any unlikely events. There would only be certain events and impossible events.

EDIT: More precisely, certain or impossible outcomes for a given trial.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

High School An Observed Extreme Probability Event
  • · Replies 31 ·
2
Replies
31
Views
4K
Undergrad How Many Unique Games of Commander Can Be Played?
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
3K
High School Which probability calculation is "more correct" in Baccarat games?
  • · Replies 9 ·
Replies
9
Views
6K
Undergrad How to calculate the probabilities here? (3-person card game)
  • · Replies 9 ·
Replies
9
Views
4K
High School Card-drawing probability problem
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
2K
Graduate Calculating the conditional probability of an event
  • · Replies 17 ·
Replies
17
Views
3K
High School How are permutations and probability related?
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
High School In dire Straights: Straights of 11+ w/ 2 Poker decks
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
2K
Undergrad Are My Probability Calculations Correct?
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
4K
Undergrad Bridge Card Game: Finding the Probability of Spades & One-Suit Hands
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K