Andre said:
Some decade ago I wrote a book about the possibilities and limitations of UAV's (Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle). It has never been published and that wasn't the intention as well but it was to convince the government not to rely on UAV's for replacement of the fighter fleet. And so it did.
Bottom line, the two singlemost important parts of an aircraft are: eyes (eyeball mark I) and brains. In the complex multiple high speed control loop (observe, orient, decide, act) can only be as perfect as it weakest part in the chain. Amputating "observe" and "orient" and bring it to a remote location is a bad move. Then the control loop relies on the limits of artificial sensors and the limits of transmitting in the electromagnetic spectrum with bandwidth congestion, jamming and what not. The control loop is further weakened by the loss of time due to the extra required information processing, and in a fight every nanosecond counts.
I doubt any military will ever elect to rely completely on unmanned vehicles, and if one ever did it would not happen for quite some time - but that is not to say they will not augment and replace manned vehicles in a greater variety of roles. Just as the technological advancements brought about by the industrial revolution radically changed ground combat and brought about mechanised and aerial warfare, so can electronics and miniaturisation bring about a change in the extent on which we rely on manned vehicles.
Pilots already rely almost entirely on electronic systems to aim and guide over-the-horizon precision-guided munitions - http://www.textrondefense.com/products/airlaunched/sfw.htm" don't even require them to aim (take a look at that B-52 captain's description in the video at the top right of the page). There aren't many weapons designed today that require line-of-sight to the target. In such an operational environment, there is limited advantage in having those eyeballs in the cockpit rather than on the ground/seas.
It's not only for aiming and guidance that pilots rely on their electronics -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-16_Fighting_Falcon#Negative_static_stability". The physiological limits of the human body have become the most limiting factor in terms of fighter jets' performance.
The same technological improvements that enable human pilots to do more also make them an easier target. AA technology has improved much from the 60's, when it was already becoming a serious problem. AA weapons are smaller, cheaper, more mobile, quicker to deploy and easier to operate. A fleet of expendable drones can carry out missions that manned aircraft can only accomplish after a few (crucial) hours or days of chipping away at an enemy's AA array.
The context in which this topic was brought up is one good example of the way UAVs can revolutionise warfare. One day mammoth carriers will be as obsolete as cavalry, the only question is when?
Andre said:
Of course you could try and avoid those problems and attempt to engineer an autonomous vehicle. But don't be surprised if it doesn't work. Ever seen a car race without drivers? Compare it with that.
Furthermore, there are rules of engagement issues. The most important being positive visual identification of the target. Rather problematic if there are no eyes around.
As I noted, pilots are already engaging targets which they only see on a monitor - IMO there are some advantages to having them make certain decisions when they don't have other things on their mind. There isn't much difference between an autonomous drone and the above mentioned sensor-fuzed weapons (already used by the US in Iraq), though I doubt we'll see autonomously attacking weapons deployed much because of these issues. As for the comparison with cars - I would like to see cars built and designed with a tenth of the JSF programme's budget race, then it will be a fairer comparison.
Andre said:
So the number of tasks for UAV's is rather limited. Certainly it's an excellent reconnaisance platform but even then it lacks the brains to react on changes in the environment, not observable for remote controllers.
Aircraft were also once seen as an excellent reconnaisance platform that is inherently deficient to perform other roles. It's all a matter of technological advances, and that is a field where a modern militaries have a significant advantage.
Andre said:
Conclusion
Don't send a small boy to do a mans job.
Sounds like something a WWI general would say about landships, er - I mean tanks.