How many subjects do I need to prepare for a 90% chance of passing the exam?

In summary: Thanks for that, I see what you've done. Simple now really. How about the 90% chance scenario. That would likely be much lower right?Yes, the 90% chance scenario would be much lower. I like to live dangerously and have 2 of these exams to prep for. A 'good paragraph' answer being 300 words, that's 15000 words I need to write to guarantee a pass.There must be a high chance ratio that would bring down the writing volume considerably. There are probably a couple from the list of 30 I could also take a punt and say they won't be in the final 10. How would I calculate the 2 scenarios so I can work it out for myself?
  • #1
declan1
2
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I have a scenario where I have a list of 30 subjects that might appear in an online exam.

of the 30, only ten will actually appear in the exam and of those 10, I must select 5 to write a paragraph on.

Given that I have the list of thirty, how many paragraphs would I need to write in advance to ensure that I would have at least 5 of the selected 10?

I am having trouble calculating beyond the first event (each topic having a 1 in 3 chance of being part of the ten).

My instinct says 20, but I think it's likely less than that.

To clarify, my teacher says the learning outcomes are what is important, so having multiple paragraphs pre-prepared is not cheating.
 
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  • #2
declan said:
I have a scenario where I have a list of 30 subjects that might appear in an online exam.

of the 30, only ten will actually appear in the exam and of those 10, I must select 5 to write a paragraph on.

Given that I have the list of thirty, how many paragraphs would I need to write in advance to ensure that I would have at least 5 of the selected 10?

I am having trouble calculating beyond the first event (each topic having a 1 in 3 chance of being part of the ten).

My instinct says 20, but I think it's likely less than that.

To clarify, my teacher says the learning outcomes are what is important, so having multiple paragraphs pre-prepared is not cheating.

Wellcome on MHB delcan!...

... if You want to guarantee in the 'worst case', then You have to prepare at least 25 subjects... more complex but also much more interesting from the point of view of the calculus of probability would be, for example, calculate how many subjects to prepare for say .9 chance of passing the exam ...

Kind regards

$\chi$ $\sigma$
 
  • #3
chisigma said:
Wellcome on MHB delcan!...

... if You want to guarantee in the 'worst case', then You have to prepare at least 25 subjects... more complex but also much more interesting from the point of view of the calculus of probability would be, for example, calculate how many subjects to prepare for say .9 chance of passing the exam ...

Kind regards

$\chi$ $\sigma$

Thanks for that, I see what you've done. Simple now really. How about the 90% chance scenario. That would likely be much lower right? I like to live dangerously and have 2 of these exams to prep for. A 'good paragraph' answer being 300 words, that's 15000 words I need to write to guarantee a pass. There must be a high chance ratio that would bring down the writing volume considerably. There are probably a couple from the list of 30 I could also take a punt and say they won't be in the final 10. How would I calculate the 2 scenarios so I can work it out for myself?
 

FAQ: How many subjects do I need to prepare for a 90% chance of passing the exam?

1. What is the definition of probability in an exam question?

Probability in an exam question refers to the likelihood or chance of a specific outcome or event occurring. It is typically expressed as a number between 0 and 1, with 0 representing impossibility and 1 representing certainty.

2. How is probability calculated in an exam question?

The calculation of probability in an exam question depends on the type of question being asked. For example, in a multiple-choice question, the probability of selecting the correct answer is calculated by dividing the number of correct options by the total number of options. In a scenario-based question, the probability is calculated by considering the likelihood of each event occurring and multiplying them together.

3. What factors influence the probability of a correct answer in an exam question?

The probability of a correct answer in an exam question can be influenced by several factors, such as the difficulty level of the question, the amount of information provided, and the examinee's level of knowledge and understanding of the topic being tested. Other factors may include the format of the question and the presence of distractors or misleading information.

4. How can understanding probability help in answering exam questions?

Understanding probability can help in answering exam questions by allowing the examinee to make informed guesses or strategic choices when unsure of the correct answer. It can also help in identifying and eliminating unlikely options, increasing the chances of selecting the correct answer.

5. Is probability the same as luck in an exam question?

No, probability is not the same as luck in an exam question. Luck implies a random and unpredictable occurrence, while probability is based on mathematical calculations and the likelihood of a specific outcome. While luck may play a role in some instances, understanding probability can increase the chances of selecting the correct answer in an exam question.

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