How much to top physics grad programs care about gpa

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Thomas Brady
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Pretty broad question, but to be more specific, in my case I'm currently in my 2nd year of undergrad going for physics and electrical engineering at ucsb. I didnt perform too well up until now with a cumulative of 3.2, so if i were to raise my gpa up to around 3.5-3.6 by the time i graduate what would be my chances at getting into one of the top physics grad programs? I am aware that many other factors come in particularly research experience and letters of rec, but assuming strong research experience and letters of rec how much will my gpa hurt my chances?
 
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I'm only a senior in undergrad, but if you have very strong research experience and letters of recommendation, I don't see why a 3.6 would hurt too much, especially if you got good grades in your upper level courses.