How Safe Are Self-Driving Cars After the First Fatal Accident?

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A self-driving Uber vehicle struck and killed a pedestrian in Arizona, marking the first fatal incident involving autonomous cars. The event raises significant concerns about the safety and readiness of self-driving technology, especially given the limited number of vehicles in operation. Discussions highlight the potential for engineers to analyze the incident thoroughly, which could lead to improvements across all autonomous vehicles. There are debates about the legal implications of the accident, particularly regarding the accountability of the vehicle's operator and the technology itself. Ultimately, the incident underscores the complexities of integrating self-driving cars into public spaces and the necessity for rigorous safety standards.
  • #61
Borg said:
From TeethWhitener's link on page one, the woman stepped in front of the vehicle so fast that it was unlikely that anyone could have avoided that accident. This really isn't a case of excessive speed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tepped-suddenly-in-front-of-self-driving-uber

Going slower would have reduced the injuries a bit. If it was day time and you were approaching this women you would have probably had her in your sights and might have been cautious near her. You said yourself you watch out for stupid people. I would like to think you would have avoided hitting her during the day, you would have been alert and swerved out of the way, at night less likely.
 
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  • #62
Spinnor said:
If the Uber car needs to violate the speed limit in order to keep of with the flow of traffic which is also violating the law then Uber should not be on the road...
So you can violate the law, but Uber can't? Really?
...and all the drivers should have transponders in their cars that report their speed violations to big brother...
Well that's just silly. You're really digging in here, but I think you've probably gotten the point by now that your logic doesn't work/doesn't produce the best outcome. So I think we can drop this rather than keeping getting sillier and sillier.
 
  • #63
russ_watters said:
Well that's just silly.

Why is obeying the speed limit funny? People speed in front of my house and I detest it. Tech could basically eliminate speeding.
 
  • #64
Borg said:
From TeethWhitener's link on page one, the woman stepped in front of the vehicle so fast that it was unlikely that anyone could have avoided that accident. This really isn't a case of excessive speed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tepped-suddenly-in-front-of-self-driving-uber
Maybe. We'll have to wait for the results of the investigation, but one thing I suspect computer drivers still aren't good at is recognizing and reacting to threats before they happen (such as anticipating whether a pedestrian at the side of the road is about to try to cross). Whether or not that could have prevented this specific case, I suspect it is still a considerable issue in other cases. Part of that is that drivers and pedestrians communicate with each other in ways that autonomous vehicles are not yet able to do.
 
  • #65
Spinnor said:
Why is obeying the speed limit funny?
Please stop. I wasn't saying obeying the speed limit is funny, I was saying your suggestion to put transponders on cars to enforce it was silly (not funny). And it is unnecessary for you to keep trying to argue this point, since you already acknowledged that you are willing to break the law to enhance safety. So there is no reason for you to continue arguing as if you don't believe that.
 
  • #66
Stopping now.
 
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  • #67
russ_watters said:
...though "probability" is not clear-cut because the transportation is used in different ways/for different purposes and as such there are different choices that can be made for the measurement in some cases. I can consistently compare miles or trips to make a decision on how to get from Philly to Boston (and get different answers if I use "miles" or "trips"), but I can't really compare them for a flight to San Juan, since you can't drive there. That makes direct comparison a little tough.

The idea from finance here would be a replication (read: arbitrage) argument. In math it would be either dominance or an exchange argument. (I actually think you could look at this, nicely, in terms of majorization of probability distributions as well.)

Looking at safety in terms of mortality per person per mile (aka per "person miles") is a fairly common metric. As a simple first cut, you could decompose your trip to San Juan by driving to Florida then taking a boat. Commercial flying in the US is so shockingly safe that I'm quite confident it will come out ahead in terms of safety per person mile over any amount by car and, I suspect, per person mile by ferry / commercial boat.

Getting good data on public marine transport seems to be a bit patchy, though a quick look on mortality rates on cruise ships puts them as being in the neighborhood of airlines on a per passenger amount (I think it gets much worse once mileage comes into play, and industry doesn't have great reporting requirements here).

---
Note trains are another land option, though they too are dominated by planes in terms of safety evaluated on per 'person mile' morality .
---

The idea is that commercial flying dominates all other transport methods in terms of safety, so any convex combination of other transportation options, to get the same person miles done, is dominated by the commercial flying approach. (Note that flying generally allows approximately direct routes in a way that cars can't -- they are at mercy of the road system-- and certainly trains are limited by where the train tracks run, and I suspect there are similar issues with ships, so we could throw in triangle inequality as icing on the cake.)
 
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  • #68
russ_watters said:
Maybe. We'll have to wait for the results of the investigation, but one thing I suspect computer drivers still aren't good at is recognizing and reacting to threats before they happen (such as anticipating whether a pedestrian at the side of the road is about to try to cross). Whether or not that could have prevented this specific case, I suspect it is still a considerable issue in other cases. Part of that is that drivers and pedestrians communicate with each other in ways that autonomous vehicles are not yet able to do.
Agreed. While I try not to judge events through their news stories, this really looks like a case of someone stepping into the road without looking. Of course the family will sue and they will probably get something - lawyers will always be chasing ambulances.

While it's beyond my skillset as a programmer, I agree with your suspicions about threat recognition. However, I think that the companies that have been designing and building these cars have done a remarkable job so far. The accident rate has been much smaller than I expected. And I'm REEEALY GLAD that this isn't a government, lowest-bidder project.
 
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  • #69
About an hour ago, the Tempe police department released a video of the accident:

 
  • #70
If the standby driver had had his foot on the break he might I say "might" have kept the car from killing her.
 
  • #71
And if he was paying attention to a possible collision too. How long can you expect a person to remain in that state of readiness unless he is actually engaged in driving the car.
 
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  • #72
I feel bad for the woman, but I think she was clearly at fault here.

Though I wonder how much the automated car relies on visual cues. Seems like radar or sonar systems should be able to avoid those kind of scenarios
 
  • #73
OmCheeto said:
About an hour ago, the Tempe police department released a video of the accident:
Yikes. It seems initial reports were wrong: neither the car nor the standby driver were paying attention at the time of the accident, and they could/should have prevented it.

[and I'm shocked that this was released]
gleem said:
If the standby driver had had his foot on the break he might I say "might" have kept the car from killing her.
And looking up at the road instead of into the cockpit.
dipole said:
I feel bad for the woman, but I think she was clearly at fault here.

Though I wonder how much the automated car relies on visual cues. Seems like radar or sonar systems should be able to avoid those kind of scenarios
I too would have expected the sensors to detect this and the car to be able to avoid this -- assuming it had either sonar or radar. Note though that the woman was crossing at the worst possible spot: the very edge of a street light's coverage (on the wrong side of it). That makes cameras less effective... if this car used cameras for that purpose. But the driver - had he been looking - should still have been able to see her, since our eyes are much more sensitive to high dynamic ranges.
 
  • #74
OmCheeto said:
About an hour ago, the Tempe police department released a video of the accident:
...
Late entry:

Tempe Police Department; "Tempe Police Vehicular Crimes Unit is actively investigating the details of this incident that occurred on March 18th. We will provide updated information regarding the investigation once it is available."

Btw, I was tipped off to the video by Stephen King.

Stephen King; "The pedestrian fatality in Tempe, Ariz. is very sad, but the immediate assumption that the self-driving car was at fault--an assumption that now seems erroneous--is fascinating. Food for sociologists and psychologists."
4:07 PM - 21 Mar 2018 [PDT]​

Stephen has written at least one book about autonomous homicidal cars, before there were autonomous cars.
 
  • #75
Bystander said:
According to news, "jaywalking."

Even so, I don't think Jaywalking deserves the death penalty.

russ_watters said:
I have a fundamental moral objection to beta testing technology that can kill you on the public

There's billions at stake. You can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. History suggests that the people who run and ran Uber - can I call them the Ubermenschen? - are not the sort to let doing what's right stand in the way of making a buck.

Presumably they have a group to do risk management. I'd love to be able to find out the answers to these and similar questions:
  • Was the probability of a fatality calculated? If not, why not?
  • What is the acceptable fatality rate?
  • Was there any management pressure for Risk to calculate an arbitrarily low accident/fatality rate?
  • As accidents have occurred, such as the one a year ago in Tempe, how is the model's predictive power compared with data? Is the model adjusted in light of new information? If so, by whom? Who decides whether the new risks are acceptable?
 
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  • #76
What is not apparent in the video is if the car was braking at the time of the impact. If not then there is a problem. The sensors should have picked up an object moving into the path of the car.
 
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  • #78
By my estimate from the video it seems the car was less than 100 feet from the time that the person was visually apparent. I do not know the speed limit but it has two lanes in one direction so 55 mph is not unreasonable. From the Government Fleet website the car would have gone about 80 ft before the brakes where applied for an average driver. So the car might not have slowed down too much before impact. Considering the sensors should have picked up the person before visual sighting and the fact that the reaction time for the computer is essentially zero it is likely that the car still would have impacted the person at a significant speed.
 
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  • #79
The poor woman on the bike looked like a homeless person doing the standard look down, ignore the world walk. I'm unimpressed by the automated vehicle but IMO, 100% on the bike lady for what happened.

That said:
There is a nice paved walkway that just invites (Yes, there is a sign that say's don't so the person didn't have right of way) people to cross there instead of at the intersection.
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.436...4!1sseIHdIkV5FyYzACTGokvBg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.436...4!1sE4V6_Cyyoq-K3JKD56PPyA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.436...4!1svgBgLp4aEODKKcwDOGl-tg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
 
  • #81
Vanadium 50 said:
Presumably they have a group to do risk management. I'd love to be able to find out the answers to these and similar questions:
  • Was the probability of a fatality calculated? If not, why not?
A: "Let's just do whatever we want and let the lawyers sort it out - it's always worked before."
 
  • #82
gleem said:
By my estimate from the video it seems the car was less than 100 feet from the time that the person was visually apparent.
"Visually apparent" to us in the video does not necessarily correspond with "visually apparent" to the driver or a radar/sonar/lidar on a car.
I do not know the speed limit but it has two lanes in one direction so 55 mph is not unreasonable.
38 in a 35 zone.
 
  • #85
Odd. The northbound lanes of Mill Avenue speed limit is 45 mph, while the southbound lanes are set at 35 mph.
Perhaps that's where some of the confusion is coming from.
The vehicle was traveling north.
 
  • #86
russ_watters said:
A: "Let's just do whatever we want and let the lawyers sort it out - it's always worked before."
Ironically, this seems to also be the attitude of pedestrians who don't pay attention when they cross the street.
nsaspook said:
If you look down the road on this one, you can see two pedestrians crossing the road in front of oncoming traffic (that had to break for them) with no crosswalk or sidewalk where they crossed even though there is a much wider sidewalk on the side that they were originally on. :oldeyes:
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.436...4!1slC6iG7fn3TmsKGAC65MJnA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
 
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  • #87
russ_watters said:
Not sure where that is in relation to the accident, but a source was provided on page 1 saying 38 in a 35.

38 in a 35 makes it sound like the car was over-driving the conditions and that could reduce normal reactions times to below what was safe for the road.
 
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  • #88
Watching the video it looks like the headlights were not at the appropriate angle or intensity. The pedestrian didn't just step out from behind a blind spot or corner yet was only visible in the very last moments.
 
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  • #89
russ_watters said:
At least from a perception perspective that's all true, but I don't necessarily agree that it's right. An agreeing example to highlight why I disagree:

I just performed a risk analysis of an industrial campus electrical system in Puerto Rico. Failures are scored according to severity and likelihood, with full power outages for more than a day getting the same, maximum score. Below a day, outages or voltage dips ranging from miliseconds (can often be plowed-through) to seconds (it takes 30 seconds for a generator to start) to minutes (it can take a few minutes to reset a tripped circuit breaker) have different severities.

Hurricane Maria, however, was an unprecedented emergency situation, and generators that were designed to run for hundreds of hours a year instead ran for thousands last year. This requires a new level of "severity" not previously considered.

Unlike power outages, which are not all the same severity despite looking the same at the moment they happen, a death is a death. They are all the same. And in a country where individual rights are paramount, they are all weighed equally. So a fair risk assessment should say that a plane crash that kills 150 people is exactly equal to 50 car crashes that each kill 3. And multiplying that by the probability of each gives the relative risk.

...though "probability" is not clear-cut because the transportation is used in different ways/for different purposes and as such there are different choices that can be made for the measurement in some cases. I can consistently compare miles or trips to make a decision on how to get from Philly to Boston (and get different answers if I use "miles" or "trips"), but I can't really compare them for a flight to San Juan, since you can't drive there. That makes direct comparison a little tough.
That's a cool assessment. Great insight.

I am also curious about more rigorous statistical risk analysis on this issue. That is, the "fairest" comparison between two different transportation methods, namely planes and cars. Just like you said, probability based on deaths/events and probability based on deaths/distance is going to yield some different result. Furthermore, as you mentioned, the purpose of using certain transportation method changes the weight of each accidents. I wonder how that plays out.
 
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  • #90
Ryan_m_b said:
Watching the video it looks like the headlights were not at the appropriate angle or intensity. The pedestrian didn't just step out from behind a blind spot or corner yet was only visible in the very last moments.

They look bad like most SUV headlights systems on a dark object at night.

A very good driver with the best equipment might have bailed her out after the disregard of approaching traffic while jaywalking.
 

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