I have the data and need to make a prediction based on it (probability)

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around making a prediction for the number of births in the year 2010 based on a linear regression model derived from historical birth data. Participants explore the application of statistical methods, specifically linear regression, to interpret the data and generate predictions.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Technical explanation, Homework-related, Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses confusion about understanding statistics and seeks guidance on predicting births for 2010.
  • Another participant provides a linear regression equation and prompts the original poster to identify the appropriate value for the independent variable to make a prediction.
  • There is a clarification regarding the role of the independent variable $x$, which represents the year, in the context of the regression equation.
  • A participant calculates a predicted value of 13.277 for the year 2010 based on the regression model.
  • Another participant confirms the calculated prediction aligns with their own result.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the interpretation of the regression model and the calculation process for predicting the number of births in 2010, though initial confusion is expressed regarding the variables involved.

Contextual Notes

The discussion assumes familiarity with linear regression concepts and does not address potential limitations or assumptions inherent in the model or the data used.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be useful for individuals interested in statistical methods, particularly linear regression, and those seeking to apply these concepts to real-world data for predictions.

chriskeller1
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Hello Everyone,
I really can't understand stats and it's driving me crazy.

I have data for births linked with different years, the graphic looks like this
View attachment 3382
But I need to make a prediction on the births in year 2010. How do I go about that?!
 

Attachments

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    Screen Shot 2014-10-08 at 9.39.48 PM.png
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It looks like you are provided with the linear regression:

$$y=-0.1103x+234.98$$

Can you see what you need to use for $x$ to get a prediction for the year 2010?
 
I'm confused... Isn't x supposed to represent the years?
 
chriskeller1 said:
I'm confused... Isn't x supposed to represent the years?

Yes, it appears to me that the independent variable $x$ is the year, and this input into the given line will give a prediction for the output, the dependent variable which is the birth rate, for that year.

So, use $x=2010$ in the given line, and what do you find?
 
Oh, so basically it's going to be 13.277?

Thank you!
 
chriskeller1 said:
Oh, so basically it's going to be 13.277?

Thank you!

Yes, that's the same value I get. (Yes)
 

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