Implications of Covid becoming endemic

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Discussion Overview

This thread explores the potential implications of SARS-CoV-2 becoming endemic, focusing on its impacts on life, the economy, travel, healthcare systems, and social dynamics. Participants discuss various scenarios regarding the future management of the virus and its effects on society.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express concerns about high inflation and economic instability as a result of the virus becoming endemic, suggesting potential societal unrest.
  • Others compare the situation to other endemic diseases like HIV, hepatitis C, and influenza, implying that similar protection methods may apply.
  • One viewpoint suggests that vaccination is crucial for transitioning COVID-19 to an endemic state, potentially resembling the flu or common cold, but emphasizes the need for high vaccination rates to achieve this.
  • A participant references Christian Drosten's perspective that achieving a population-level protection through vaccination is essential for managing the virus as it becomes endemic.
  • Concerns are raised about the reliability of COVID-19 data compared to other diseases, with some participants speculating that mortality rates may eventually align with those of malaria or influenza post-vaccination.
  • Another participant argues that even with vaccination, COVID-19 may initially result in higher mortality rates than influenza, suggesting it could take several years for the situation to improve.
  • There is a mention of a paper discussing the immunological factors that could influence the transition of COVID-19 to an endemic state.
  • One participant reflects on the lack of planning for the endemic phase's impact on daily life, suggesting that society may need to accept a certain level of risk regarding vaccination uptake.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the future of COVID-19 as an endemic disease, with no clear consensus on its potential impacts or the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Disagreements exist regarding the expected mortality rates and the societal response to unvaccinated individuals.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight uncertainties regarding the long-term effects of COVID-19, the reliability of data, and the assumptions underlying their projections about vaccination and endemicity.

EPR
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TL;DR
The relevant implications of Covid becoming endemic
In this thread I'd like to explore the substantial impacts that SARS-2 becoming endemic will have on future life, economy, travel, the healthcare system and social life in general.
For starters, it seems high inflation will be the norm. Some economies will likely crash and most will become overburdened with debt. This can result in revolts and sometimes wars.

Do we have the long-term plan how to deal with what is potentially coming if the virus becomes endemic and continues to take a sizeable human toll, clog hospitals and force us to enforce lockdowns?
 
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You mean as does HIV, hep C, measles, malaria, flu, or others? Guess we come to the same protection methods.
 
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EPR said:
Do we have the long-term plan how to deal with what is potentially coming if the virus becomes endemic and continues to take a sizeable human toll, clog hospitals and force us to enforce lockdowns?
The plan is to vaccinate as much as possible. There is a chance (not guaranteed) that Covid will eventually become something like the flu, or perhaps even a cold. But to get there with as little serious illness and death as possible, one needs vaccination.

Here is one possibility mentioned by Christian Drosten:
After we had realized we will have the vaccine, it became clear what the vaccine can do: The vaccine helps society to make the step towards the endemic situation – learning to live with the virus after vaccinations have achieved a population-level of protection. We need to lower the deadliness so that the virus can spread subtly in the population. We want SARS2 to become a common cold – that’s the endemic situation.

Achieving that depends on us and on the vaccination rate. ... The window for the step towards endemicity narrows with waning vaccine effects. We could say, `OK let’s boost’, but actually, it’s not the aim to vaccinate again and again. I think the majority of infectious disease biologists and physicians currently says the endemicity is a common cold situation – but then we’re also in a situation where the `booster shot’ doesn’t happen here [via injection] but via recurring contacts with the virus, so that population immunity will become more and more resilient. This will generate longer-lasting, more robust mucosal immunity.

How I would like to become immune: I want to have a vaccine-induced immunity and on top of that, I want to have my first generic infection, and the second, and the third. Then I know I will have long-lasting immunity and I will only encounter the virus every few years like I encounter the other coronaviruses. I can take responsibility for that as a healthy adult–other groups can’t and I can only do that because I’ve been vaccinated twice. Population-wide, we can't do that [in Germany] at the moment.

But there are other, less pleasant possibiilties:
Will the pandemic fade into an ordinary disease like the flu? The world is watching Denmark for clues
Kai Kupferschmidt
https://www.science.org/content/art...nary-disease-flu-world-watching-denmark-clues

Another good discussion:
Many say Covid-19 will transition ‘from epidemic to endemic’. But what does this mean?
Murad Banaji
https://scroll.in/pulse/1007845/man...m-epidemic-to-endemic-but-what-does-this-mean
 
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atyy said:
Will the pandemic fade into an ordinary disease like the flu?
Not so ordinary.
Every year between 290,000 and 645,000 people worldwide die of respiratory diseases as a result of influenza infection, according to the latest estimate by an international research network led by the US health authority CDC.
https://www.pharmazeutische-zeitung...udie-zahl-der-grippetoten-hoeher-als-gedacht/

And about 400,000 die of malaria each year.
https://de.statista.com/statistik/d...aelle-aufgrund-von-malaria-nach-weltregionen/

I doubt that we have reliable data for Covid, yet. At least not worldwide. I assume that we will level down to similar figures as malaria or flu once we have vaccinated the world.
 
fresh_42 said:
I doubt that we have reliable data for Covid, yet. At least not worldwide. I assume that we will level down to similar figures as malaria or flu once we have vaccinated the world.
I think on a one round of full (double dose) vaccination it will still be worse than the flu. The UK after opening up is on track for 40,000 deaths a year, which is 3x as bad as an average flu year (and twice as bad as a bad year). Maybe they can bring it down with boosters. But it could be that in successive years, as immunity builds in the population with repeated infections in a well vaccinated and boosted population, that number will decrease over the years. But I think it will need at least 2 more years for the UK - this winter, and the next year's, and then maybe the one after that will be in the range of flu, and if we are lucky it will continue down towards the range of a common cold, but that's more in the range of 3-5 years.

Here's an interesting paper that studies how long it might take for Covid to become like the flu depending on various parameters:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe6522
Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity
Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjornstad and Rustom Antia
 
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Realizing the OP is no longer with us...
EPR said:
In this thread I'd like to explore the substantial impacts that SARS-2 becoming endemic will have on future life, economy, travel, the healthcare system and social life in general.
For starters, it seems high inflation will be the norm. Some economies will likely crash and most will become overburdened with debt. This can result in revolts and sometimes wars.

Do we have the long-term plan how to deal with what is potentially coming if the virus becomes endemic and continues to take a sizeable human toll, clog hospitals and force us to enforce lockdowns?
I mentioned this in another thread; I don't think anyone is really planning for/expecting the "endemic" phase to be heavily impactful on everyday life. I think the worst case people are expecting/speculating about is it being similar to the flu. Not to be too crass about it, but I think there has to come a point where we abandon the anti-vax to their fate. It's definitely not worth long-term societal harm to try to protect people who don't want it.
 
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