TrickyDicky said:
This particular approach and problems is shared by 90% of what is published in cosmology and astrophysics, more so in the area of galactic evolution and AGN's.
It's not, in the papers that I've seen. People are extremely careful with cosmological statistical arguments, because there it's quite easy to get results that make no sense. Any time you come up with a cosmological statistical argument you have to spend a lot of effort justifying said argument.
Also, it helps a lot if you state your assumptions. If you explicitly say "we are assuming no galactic evolution" that's fine.
So I guess for you most of what is published in journals is crackpot.
You aren't a crackpot if you know what you are writing is weird and maybe silly. A lot of stuff that gets written in journals is of the form "let's play with this silly idea and see where it leads us."
Also, crackpot changes over time. I wager that 80% of what is published now *will* be seen as crackpot if someone trying to publish in 2050, just like a lot of non-sense that gets published today, would not have been seen as non-sense in 1965.
I difer, just because GRB's are really weird things in comparison doesn't make quasars "very well understood", and people who think that might be deceiving themselves.
It's not "weirdness" but data. The problem with GRB is that they disappear after a few seconds, so it's hard to get data. For quasars, those stick around, so we have a ton of data on them, and we have a basic model that fits the data. There are some parts that we don't understand, but the parts that we don't understand about quasars (i.e. exactly how quasar magnetic fields work) are more or less the same as the parts that we we don't understand about other things (we aren't totally sure how the solar magnetic field works).
The standard model of quasars is that they are ultra massive black holes that are sucking in gas in galactic nuclei. This explains a great many things, like why quasars start appearing at z=6-8 (black hole forms) and why they disappear at z=0.5 (gas gets eaten up). You get good energy results.
I see, you let the standard view decide for you what kind of stupidity is crackpot or not, no matter how crazy something sounds.
It works the other way. I decide what it crackpot and what I decide becomes part of the standard view. Also I have reasons for deciding what is crackpot, and we can debate those reasons. For quasars, it's because we have enough data on the details of how quasars work so that it's hard to assume "loch ness monster."
Also I've been known to change my mind on what is crackpot. I can think of several examples of things that I thought were semi-crackpot at one point, that I don't now. If you want to convince me that something isn't crackpot, it helps a lot to take my objections seriously rather than start with the "you are just closed minded" spiel.
If you have a paper that says "I know you think this is crazy and you are going to say that it won't work because of X, Y, and Z, but counter-X, counter-Y, counter-Z, that's fine." But if the conversation goes "I have this idea. But what about X? You are closed minded!" that doesn't go well.
I had the impession what those papers propose is not that the quasar redshift is not due to Hubble law in their main proportion but that there might be some contribution from the Wolf effect that would increase in some proportion the redshift they would already have due to Hubble redshift-distance law.
The problem is that data they present is far, far too noisy to justify that. Now if you had a paper that said, given an accretion disk and a black hole, here is an effect that could cause spurtious redshifts. *That* would be interesting, and it would be interesting because it's likely that we will see it in other astrophysical contexts.
I don't see this possibility in itself as so out of touch with what is known about quasars, it depends on the amount of the effect as you pointed out.
The other thing is that things often get toned down for papers. For example, there are a lot of people with very strange ideas, but they get their papers published because they are able to tone things down so that the paper doesn't make huge claims, even though they do.
If someone believes something crackpot (i.e. Wolfe effect causes z=1 changes), but tones it down for a paper (Wolfe effect might cause some change), then the paper will pass peer review. One good example is the idea of MECO (eternally collapsing objects). The people that argue this are crackpots that don't understand general relativity, but they manage to get published by removing their extreme claims from the papers they submit.
Where we go next in this discussion is up to you. I'm not really that interested in a "psychological discussion" but I've listed the issues that I have with the Wolfe effect papers that I've read. I read a few, and based on those papers, I didn't think it was worth my effort to read any more.
If you can find papers that work around my objections, then COOL. I'm interested in learning something new. Specifically I'm looking for a paper that either
1) doesn't ignore the fact that we have a good model for how quasars work. If you can find a paper that shows that a Wolfe effect is possible within the context of the standard quasar model, I'd be interested... or
2) has a much stronger justification for cosmological statistics.